There is quite a bit of underperformance in Indian market volatility compared to US market volatility since the COVID-19 crash as indicated by the jaws gap below. This should resolve soon with an upcoming spike in Indian market volatility and a significant fall in the Nifty Index.
About
Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.
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Time Series Analysis with GRETL
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Showing posts with label volatility. Show all posts
Showing posts with label volatility. Show all posts
Friday 29 April 2022
Jaws GAP - India Vix vs US Vix
Labels:
india vix,
nifty,
spx,
vix,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Thursday 16 August 2018
Why a Massive Selloff in Risk Assets Could be Just a Few Days Away?
First market breadth is diverging with the New 52 week high low indicator not confirming the recent retest of highs in the S and P 500:
High beta segment of the market such as the Nasdaq is beginning to under perform the broader market much like in 2000:
The Skew Vix ratio as shown on stockcharts has spiked into double digits recently suggesting high tail risk, which is often a precursor to rising volatility and a risk off trade set up:
All this as we are in the middle of an emerging market currency crisis much like in 1998 unsupported by a tightening FED:
High beta segment of the market such as the Nasdaq is beginning to under perform the broader market much like in 2000:
The Skew Vix ratio as shown on stockcharts has spiked into double digits recently suggesting high tail risk, which is often a precursor to rising volatility and a risk off trade set up:
All this as we are in the middle of an emerging market currency crisis much like in 1998 unsupported by a tightening FED:
Emerging markets currencieshttps://t.co/iMzAOoBsZ4 pic.twitter.com/1f4DfSdl1e— Chart of the day (@macrovaluechart) August 16, 2018
Quantitative Tightening Update (June 2018) – 5 Fed Charts https://t.co/IvFzZqBq2c via @seeitmarket— Stéphane Collot (@stephanecollot) August 16, 2018
Labels:
currency crisis,
emerging market currency crisis,
fed,
market breadth,
nasdaq,
skew,
spx,
vix,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 7 February 2018
The Most Important Crowded Trade of All?
We have recently witnessed or are about to witness the implosion of a series of crowded trades namely long bitcoin, long Index ETF's and short volatility. The most important crowded trade of all is the dollar carry trade and this has been in vogue since the early 1980's. However the dollar appears to have broken out of its long term down trend line in the last 8 years post the great recession of 2008 though reluctantly so. When the real up move in the dollar occurs which is imminent look for massive carry trade liquidation and a rout in risky assets such as stocks, commodities and emerging market currencies:
Labels:
bitcoin,
carry trade,
dollar,
etf,
stock market crash,
vix,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Tuesday 19 December 2017
FED Balance Sheet Vs Emerging Market Volatility Vs Stock Market Capitalization to GDP
The assets on the FED balance sheet stands at well over 4.4 trillion dollars, this has coincided with record low emerging market volatility and highly inflated levels of stock market capitalization to GDP globally. With the FED beginning a slow tapering process, some sort of mean reversal is on the cards which could result in an uptick in emerging market volatility and a pull back of some sort in global stock market indices:
Labels:
emerging market,
fed,
fed balance sheet,
gdp,
market capitalization,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Thursday 23 November 2017
Indian Market Volatility Surging Relative to US Market Volatility
Indian market volatility has been surging off late relative to US market volatility much like in November 2016 when the last meaningful correction of 10% occurred. With the market close to record highs could complacency kill the cat yet again? Possible triggers - over valuation (p/e > 25), over bullish technicals, a slowing economy, you name it.
Labels:
correction,
india vix,
nifty,
stocks,
vix,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 4 October 2017
Emerging Parallels to the Fall of 2007 - Hallmark of a Brand New Crisis
The fall of 2017 is increasingly looking like the fall of 2007 when risky assets topped out:
Labels:
commodities,
dollar,
margin debt,
qe,
qt,
recession,
stock market crash,
valuation,
volatility,
yen
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Monday 8 May 2017
The Case for a Sell in May and Go Away
Labels:
china crash,
commodity crash,
economy,
fundamental analysis,
margin debt,
stocks,
valuations,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Thursday 15 September 2016
Chart of the Week - Vix Futures CFTC Data
The chart of the week is courtesy the volatility surfer via seeking alpha and shows CFTC data on the Vix futures. Shorts on the Vix are at 10 year highs suggesting a high level of complacency in the market. This after the Vix has not made a new low on each of the recent new highs in the S and P 500 the last 2 years. Is volatility about to surge yet again in a seasonally week period for risk assets?
Labels:
investing,
sp500,
stock market,
trading,
vix,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Tuesday 15 March 2016
Dollar Strength to Return?
Yet another FED day has come and gone, the dollar has been trending down and is approaching oversold levels and could trigger a risk off trade near term, here's how to play this:
1) Dollar Strength:
The dollar is oversold and is likely to bounce from oversold levels and strengthen against the Euro:
Can play this via the Ultralong Dollar ETF UUP:
2) This should trigger a selloff in commodities like gold, oil and base metals which are overbought:
Can play this via the ultra short basic materials ETF SMN:
3) The Volatility picture remains complacent suggesting a surge in volatility post the fed.
Can play it via the ultra long ETF on volatility UVXY:
4) This could trigger a selloff in stocks, with the S & P 500 breaking down out of a massive rising wedge on the long term charts courtesy stocktwits.com:
Can play this via ultra short ETF’s
5) Collapsing High Yield:
A high yield collapse is just around the corner and can be played via the ultra short ETF SJB:
Labels:
dollar,
fed,
gold,
oil,
sp500,
stock market,
stock market news,
stocks,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Friday 1 January 2016
Predictions for 2016
Here are my predictions for 2016:
1) 2016 is finally the year when the Euro breaches parity to the Dollar:
2) 2016 will prove to be a year of significant under performance of risk assets, particularly global stock markets and emerging market currencies:
3) 2016 will prove to be the year where carry trades get liquidated as significant Yen strength resumes:
4) Volatility surges in 2016 as global risk aversion increases significantly:
Labels:
carry trade,
dollar,
euro,
predictions,
risk aversion,
stock market crash,
volatility,
yen
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Thursday 31 December 2015
Update on Those Predictions for 2015
At the beginning of 2015 I made some predictions for grins. Here's how they played out:
The original post containing the predictions can be found here:
1) Dollar strength continues after a brief pause against all major currencies except the yen. With the Euro decisively breaking the long term support of 1.20.
This indeed was the year of dollar strength with the Euro below 1.10 and the trend may continue well into 2016.
2) Yen strength should result in a bout of carry trade liquidation that is a major negative for risk assets such as emerging market currencies and commodities.
While the dollar was broadly strong against the yen, the Yen was relatively strong against most other majors and 2016 promised to be year of Yen strength. This year saw a massive down move in commodities as expected.
3) Despite slowing growth in most emerging economies, policy makers have their hands tied and spend a whole lot of resources defending their weak currencies unsuccessfully with higher interest rates.
Emerging market currencies saw major take downs ( The Real & Rand being notable examples) across the board and the trend is set to continue in 2016.
4) This in turn sparks a major exodus of FII money flows out of emerging economies like the BRIC countries which causes their stock markets to significantly under perform despite their terrific performance in 2014 and greedy analysts calls for more.
BRIC stock markets under performed significantly in 2015 except China and more weakness is likely in 2016.
5) Volatility surges in 2015 as the Vix index doubles following a major take down of stock market indices across the globe.
The Vix crossed 50 briefly in August before retreating. A big up move in the Vix is likely in 2016.
6) Risk free assets will be among the safer bets in 2015 as risk appetites significantly wanes with treasury yields continuing to plummet with QE forever still continuing but without the desired outcomes.
Risk free assets outperformed risky assets globally but US long term yields rose as the FED began tightening Monetary policy. Risky free assets will continue to outperform in 2016.
Happy New Year!
Labels:
2015,
2016,
bric,
carry trade,
commodity,
currency,
dollar,
fed,
risk free assets,
stock market crash,
volatility,
yen
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Monday 7 December 2015
Head Winds for Global Financial Markets Going Forward
1) Collapsing Oil:
Oil has entered into a free fall post OPEC and is not looking to stabilize anytime soon. This has deflationary implications:2) A Weak High Yield Market:
Collapsing oil is definitely creating trouble for high yield issuers in the Oil market. Rig counts have almost halved and the high yield ETF is at a 52 week low. While default rates are still below long term averages there could be trouble ahead:3) Diverging Transports:
Collapsing oil should logically help the transports but this has not been the case and transports have significantly diverged from the S and P 500 with no new highs in the transports in over a year:4) Volatility on the Up:
The Vix has also positively diverged not making new lows in each of the markets recent up moves in over a year and a half:
Labels:
financial markets,
high yield,
junk bond,
oil,
oil crash,
sp500,
transports,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Tuesday 16 June 2015
Trading Strategies for Fed Day and Beyond
The Fed's first rate hike is still far away. Several key asset classes could head lower post the #Fed despite the FOMC affirming a dovish outlook. Markets have been breaking down recently and the bearish trend could resume post the #FOMC. Let us look at some key markets:
S& P 500
Current: 1958
S& P 500
Current: 1958
Support:
Recent Lows – 1867
Resistance:
Recent Highs - 2021
Outlook: Bearish
Long: 1950 Put
Hedge : 1980 Call
Euro:
Current: 1.130
Support:
50 Day Moving Average (DMA) – 1.1108
Resistance:
50 Day Weekly Moving Average (DMA) – 1.1464
Outlook: Bearish
Long: 1.12 Put
Hedge : 1.14 Call
Gold ETF GLD:
Current: 109.21
Support:
50 DMA – 107.29
Resistance:
20 WMA – 110.44
Outlook: Bullish
Long: 110 Call
Hedge : 108 Put
Oil ETF USO:
Current: 14.62
Support:
20 DMA - 14.48
20 DMA - 14.48
Resistance :
50 DMA – 15.24
20 WMA - 17.43
20 WMA - 17.43
Outlook: Bearish
Long: 14.5 Put
Hedge : 15.5 Call
Nifty:
Current: 7981
Support:
Monthly lows – 7553
Resistance:
Recent Highs – 8091
Outlook: Bearish
Long: 7800 Put
Hedge : 8100 Call
Trading Strategies for Fed Day and Beyond http://t.co/eYo9u5bwMJ pic.twitter.com/K9VVPiBl5o
— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 17, 2015
Labels:
euro,
fed,
fomc,
gold,
markets,
moving average,
nifty,
oil,
s and p,
trading,
trading strategy,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Thursday 14 May 2015
Rounding Top Pattern in the Indian Stock Market Nifty Index Suggests Lower levels for the Nifty in the Months Ahead
The weekly chart of the Indian stock market Nifty index shows a rounding top formation that targets 6000 on the Index. This coincides with a rounding bottom that is forming on the weekly chart in the India Vix which is a measure of Indian stock market volatility suggesting an upsurge in volatility in the upcoming months. The pattern suggests a level of 35 for the India #Vix up over 50% from current levels. This implies significant downside for the Nifty in the upcoming months.
Incidentally the India Vix has traded below the US Vix recently and a catch up to the upside is likely as the India Vix tends to be significantly higher than the US Vix.
Incidentally the India Vix has traded below the US Vix recently and a catch up to the upside is likely as the India Vix tends to be significantly higher than the US Vix.
Rounding Bottom in India Vix Implies Downside Ahead http://t.co/Hj1JzDT8y4 pic.twitter.com/8TL5CvoTrT
— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 6, 2015
Labels:
india vix,
indian stock market,
nifty,
Sensex,
stock market,
vix,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Friday 2 January 2015
Predictions for 2015
Dollar strength continues after a brief pause against all major currencies except the yen. With the Euro decisively breaking the long term support of 1.20.
Yen strength should result in a bout of carry trade liquidation that is a major negative for risk assets such as emerging market currencies and commodities.
Despite slowing growth in most emerging economies, policy makers have their hands tied and spend a whole lot of resources defending their weak currencies unsuccessfully with higher interest rates.
This in turn sparks a major exodus of FII money flows out of emerging economies like the BRIC countries which causes their stock markets to significantly under perform despite their terrific performance in 2014 and greedy analysts calls for more.
Volatility surges in 2015 as the Vix index doubles following a major take down of stock market indices across the globe.
Risk free assets will be among the safer bets in 2015 as risk appetites significantly wanes with treasury yields continuing to plummet with QE forever still continuing but without the desired outcomes.
Yen strength should result in a bout of carry trade liquidation that is a major negative for risk assets such as emerging market currencies and commodities.
Despite slowing growth in most emerging economies, policy makers have their hands tied and spend a whole lot of resources defending their weak currencies unsuccessfully with higher interest rates.
This in turn sparks a major exodus of FII money flows out of emerging economies like the BRIC countries which causes their stock markets to significantly under perform despite their terrific performance in 2014 and greedy analysts calls for more.
Volatility surges in 2015 as the Vix index doubles following a major take down of stock market indices across the globe.
Risk free assets will be among the safer bets in 2015 as risk appetites significantly wanes with treasury yields continuing to plummet with QE forever still continuing but without the desired outcomes.
Labels:
bonds,
commodity,
currency,
emerging market,
euro,
forex,
vix,
volatility
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
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Trading Ideas
Forex Insight
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Norges Bank does not provide any indication of earlier cuts – Commerzbank - Read more on https://www.fxstreet.com7 minutes ago
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Japan’s consumer spending slips, yen extends gains - The Japanese yen has posted gains on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 152.38, down 0.36% on the day. The yen has taken traders on a r...1 hour ago
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Chart Art: Gold (XAU/USD) Pulling Back to Support-Turned-Resistance Zone? - Missed the head and shoulders breakdown we were watching on gold prices a few days back? The precious metal is in the middle of a correction to this area...6 hours ago
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Upward Revision to Q2 GDP Aids the US Dollar’s Feeble Recovery - The second estimate of US GDP growth in Q2 saw an upward revision from 2.8% to 3%. However, US resilience has come under pressure, particularly in the labo...2 months ago
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Don’t be Fooled by the Pullback in the Dollar Because…. - Don’t be fooled by the pullback in the U.S. dollar today because the greenback could still strengthen further before the end of the year. Nearly all of the...5 years ago
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - EUR/USD's decline attempt was contained at 1.0494, above 1.0493 support and rebounded. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of ...7 years ago
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Loonie and Aussie Share Downward Bond - In yesterday’s post (Tide is Turning for the Aussie), I explained how a prevailing sense of uncertainty in the markets has manifested itself in the form of...13 years ago
Economic Calendar
India Market Insight
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OBEROI Realty TATA MOTORS M&M Supply Demand Analysis - OBEROI Realty Positional Traders can use the below mentioned levels Close above 2040 Target 2100 Intraday Traders can use the below mentioned levels Buy...7 hours ago
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Reduce Persistent Systems; target of Rs 3700: Emkay Global Financial - [image: Reduce Persistent Systems; target of Rs 3700: Emkay Global Financial] Emkay Global Financial recommended reduce rating on Persistent Systems with a...6 months ago
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Rupee falls 29 paise to close at 82.68 against US dollar - During the day, the rupee touched a high of 82.45 and a low of 82.68 against the greenback. On Friday, the rupee had settled at 82.39 against the dollar.1 year ago
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ES Hourly cloud and 4 Hour chart - - ES Hour moving towards the hourly cloud which may act as resistance. - 4 Hour chart shows a possible bullish candle which may give new high's ...3 years ago
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JUST NIFTY BLOG 10-01-2020 - Bulk Deals FII DII Stats Date # of Deals Total Volume (In Millions) 01-01-1970 0 0.00 Click here to see all Bulk Deals Date Category Buy Amount (Rs. Cror...4 years ago
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Vist Note on Federal Bank - We recently met the senior management of Federal Bank which is one of the old private sector banks with a distribution network of 1252 branches (48% Kerala...6 years ago
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Nifty Bulls bounces ferociously holding 9930,EOD Analysis - FII's bought 4.8 K contract of Index Future worth 262 cores ,9.7 K Long contract were added by FII's and 4.8 K Short contracts were added by FII's. Net Ope...7 years ago
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Midcap & Smallcap Index Corrects, Lets Come Back To Fundamentals Again - Midcap Index had made a high of 18511 on 16th May 2017, fell almost 7% and is currently trading at 17230. Smallcap Index made all time high of 7679 on 11th...7 years ago
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Market outlook for 30/10/2016 - *Nifty closed up 22.75 points (0.26%) at 8638.00* while Future closed at 8667.40, premium of 29.40 points. *Bank Nifty closed up 41.35 points (0.21%) at 19...8 years ago
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Option Open Interest for 28-10-2016 - Inference The index opened flat to positive and after making an initial low around 8581 saw some short covering to close at 8638.00, gain of 22.75 points. ...8 years ago
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Market Review for 23rd August 2016 - *Nifty (8629)* we said ‘technically trend is still intact but there exists selling pressure near 8746 and support around 8600 zones’ the Nifty unfolded as...8 years ago
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ITC To Resume Cigarette Manufacturing - ITC manufactures a range of cigarette brands, including India Kings, Classic, Gold Flake, Navy Cut, Capstan, Bristol, Flake, Silk Cut, which are manufactur...8 years ago
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.