About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Showing posts with label fed balance sheet. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fed balance sheet. Show all posts

Tuesday, 19 December 2017

FED Balance Sheet Vs Emerging Market Volatility Vs Stock Market Capitalization to GDP

The assets on the FED balance sheet stands at well over 4.4 trillion dollars, this has coincided with record low emerging market volatility and highly inflated levels of stock market capitalization to GDP globally. With the FED beginning a slow tapering process, some sort of mean reversal is on the cards which could result in an uptick in emerging market volatility and a pull back of some sort in global stock market indices:

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Thursday, 20 October 2016

Chart of the Week - Balance Sheet of the US Federal Reserve

The chart of the week is courtesy Charles Hugh Smith and shows the current balance sheet of the FED. The current balance sheet show a total asset base exceeding 4.5 Trillion dollars thanks to a series of quantitative easing (QE). This is up from the 1.0 Trillion mark in 2008 when the FED flooded the world with cheap money via its unconventional monetary policy. Wonder how long this continues?
US FED balance sheet
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.