About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday 28 June 2020

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 29

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
3009, -2.86%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10383, 1.35%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2980, 0.40%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1785, 1.81%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
38.20, -3.90%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.66, 1.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1738, 11.77%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1218, 0.37%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
107.23, 0.32%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8806, -3.00%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (Bond ETF)
100.96, -2.04%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
0.64%, -7.74%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
826, -20.38%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
34.73, -1.11%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
138
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
3107, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2980, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
3021, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10097, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9577, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10894, Below
Neutral
Bearish
S & P 500 P/E
21.57
Bearish
Neutral
Nifty P/E
26.67
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
28.74, -4.10%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
75.62, -0.84%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6
10
Bearish Indications
8
6
Outlook
Bearish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P fell and the Nifty fell rallied week. Indicators are mixed for the week.
The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – Employment data, UK – GDP, Eurozone – CPI, German employment data,
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals june 29


The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mixed for the coming week, but the recent rally is coming to an end. After extreme euphoria for the indices a highly probable selloff to the 2700 area is emerging on the S and P, and 8500 should arrive on the Nifty in short order. The FED is repeating the Japan experiment and the lost 3 decades in Japan (1989-2019) is set to repeat across the globe. SPX 1500 and lower by year end and we stay there till 2050, scary? The markets are very close to an epic melt down and the SPX is headed way lower. The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3020 (up) and 2995 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10450 (up) and 10300 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. Here's the outlook from@JoeFriday_714:



Sunday 21 June 2020

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 22

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
3098, 1.86%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10244, 2.72%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2968, 1.64%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1757, 1.11%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
39.83, 9.85%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.61, 0.27%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1527, 65.44%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1177, -0.70%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
106.89, -0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9078, -0.05%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (Bond ETF)
103.06, 0.76%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
0.69%, -2.25%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
1038, 1.74%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
35.12, -2.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
125
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
3091, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2952, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
3019, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9832, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
9433, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10910, Below
Neutral
Bearish
S & P 500 P/E
22.21
Bearish
Neutral
Nifty P/E
25.49
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
29.97, -2.78%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
76.26, 0.28%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
12
12
Bearish Indications
2
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P and the Nifty fell rallied week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets have begun a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – GDP, China – POBC rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com, multpl.com, NSE
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals june 22


The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators have flipped bullish for the coming week, but the recent rally is coming to an end. After extreme euphoria for the indices a highly probable selloff to the 2700 area is emerging on the S and P, and 8500 should arrive on the Nifty in the next two weeks. The markets are very close to an epic melt down and the SPX is headed to 1800 in the long term. The markets are overvalued, overbought and out of touch with economic realities. Long term, the epic meltdown is set to continue resulting in a 5 year plus bear market with lot lower levels maybe as low as 800 on the S and P. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we have made a major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities. High valuations continue. The breakdown in Crude and the Euro is a precursor to yet another massive drop in the S and P 500. The recent global virus epidemic (black swan) is likely to dent global GDP significantly and usher in a depression much faster than most think. The trend has changed from bullish to bearish and the markets are getting smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave has started in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are entering a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts into a recession. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3110 (up) and 3085 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10300 (up) and 10150 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. Here's the outlook from@JoeFriday_714:

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.