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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Showing posts with label stock market outlook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market outlook. Show all posts

Sunday, 12 August 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 13

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2833, -0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
11430, 0.60%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2795, 2.00%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1219, -0.34%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
67.63, -1.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.74, -0.76%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1691, -4.62%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1418, -1.36%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
110.83, -0.38%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
11090, -0.06%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
35.81, -0.17%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.86%, -3.25%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
421, -8.82%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
13.16, 13.06%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
149
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2825, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2785, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2709, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11222, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10956, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10598, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.85, 6.40%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.08, 0.86%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
5
6
Bearish Indications
7
8
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bearish.
The markets are close to making secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia Employment data, Euro Zone – German GDP, CPI, U.KEmployment data, CPI, Retail sales, U.S – Retail sales, Canada – CPI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals august 13


The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. This rally is close to a major secondary top in key asset classes which is going to be followed by a massive selloff. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2845 (up) and 2820 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11500 (up) and 11300 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Sunday, 5 August 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 06

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2840, 0.76%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11361, 0.73%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2740, -4.63%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1223, 0.02%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
68.49, -0.29%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.76, -1.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1773, 5.79%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1575, -0.74%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
111.25, 0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
11097, 1.28%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.87, 0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.95%, -0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
462, -20.53%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.64, -10.67%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
146
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2811, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2771, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2702, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11105, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10881, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10567, Above
Neutral
Neutral
India Vix
12.08, -1.89%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.49, -0.16%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7
8
Bearish Indications
5
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish.
The markets are close to making secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – GDP, Australia – RBA rate decision, New Zealand – RBNZ rate decision, U.K – GDP, U.S – PPI, CPI, Canada – Employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals august 06


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. This rally is close to a major secondary top in key asset classes. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2850 (up) and 2830 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11450 (up) and 11250 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.