About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Is a Recession Imminent?

Definition of a Recession: The textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Some examples of recessions in...

Sunday, 10 November 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 11

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
3093, 0.85%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11908, 0.15%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
2964, 0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1460, -3.43%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
57.44, 2.21%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.69, 1.32%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1378, -18.80%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1019, -1.33%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
109.29, 1.01%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
11067, 3.06%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (Bond)
108.20, -0.04%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.95%, 13.49%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
732, 3.51%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.07, -1.87%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
123
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
3031, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2991, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2899, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11676, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
11344, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
11353, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.85, 0.78%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
71.36, 0.85%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10
9
Bearish Indications
4
6
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
UK – GDP, Employment data, CPI, Eurozone – German GDP, CPI, USA – CPI, PPI, Japan – GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals november 11


The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are likely making another major top in global equity markets that will probably fail at resistance near 3065 on the Sand P 500. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities and insane valuations. A massive drop in the S and P 500 looks imminent. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3105 (up) and 3080 (down) on the S & P 500 and 12000 (up) and 11800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Sunday, 3 November 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 04

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
3067, 1.47%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11891, 2.65%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2958, 0.11%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1517, 0.75%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
56.17, -0.86%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.66, -0.49%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1697, -5.77%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1167, 0.79%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
108.19, -0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10739, -1.08%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (Bond)
108.24, -0.57%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.71%, -5.03%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
707, 10.40%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.30, -2.77%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
127
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2993, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2971, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2888, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11503, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
11244, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
11324, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.73, 2.73%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
70.76, -0.08%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
8
Bearish Indications
4
6
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
UK – BOE rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals november 04


The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are likely making another major top in global equity markets that will probably fail at resistance near 3065 on the Sand P 500. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities and a massive drop in the S and P 500 looks imminent. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3075 (up) and 3055 (down) on the S & P 500 and 12000 (up) and 11800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.