About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Is a Recession Imminent?

Definition of a Recession: The textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Some examples of recessions in...

Sunday, 22 July 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 23

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2802, 0.02%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
11010, -0.08%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
2829, -0.07%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1231, -0.81%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
68.26, -3.87%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.76, -0.70%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1657, 1.53%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1724, 0.27%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
111.49, -0.76%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
10742, 1.85%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.71, 0.06%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.90%, 2.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
646, -4.53%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.86, 5.58%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
153
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2762, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2751, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2688, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10842, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10757, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10508, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.53, 10.02%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
68.74, 0.37%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
5
5
Bearish Indications
8
8
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are bearish.
The markets are close to making secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – CPI, New Zealand – Employment data, Europe – ECB rate decision, U.S – GDP, Russia – Rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals july 23


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were relatively unchanged last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. This rally is close to a major secondary top in key asset classes near 2830 on the S and P, 1.20 on the Euro and 11,100 on the Nifty. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2810 (up) and 2790 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11100 (up) and 10900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Thursday, 19 July 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

The Chinese yuan continues its sell off taking other emerging currencies with it. More curve flattening amidst insanely high valuations. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Sunday, 15 July 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 16

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2801, 1.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11019, 2.29%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2831, 3.06%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1241, -1.16%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
71.01, -3.78%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.78, -1.72%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1632, 1.24%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1693, -0.49%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
112.33, 1.75%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10546, 0.69%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.69, 0.37%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.83%, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
676, 17.25%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.18, -8.90%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
143
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2753, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2737, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2681, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10790, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10733, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10478, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.30, -1.13%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.48, -0.39%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10
11
Bearish Indications
4
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The markets are close to making secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China – GDP, Australia – Employment data, New Zealand – CPI, Europe - CPI, U.K – Employment data, CPI, Retail sales, U.S – Retail sales, Canada – CPI, Retail sales
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals july 16


The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. This rally is close to a major secondary top in key asset classes near 2830 on the S and P, 1.20 on the Euro and 11,100 on the Nifty. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2810 (up) and 2790 (down) on the S & P and 11100 (up) and 10900 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.