About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Is a Recession Imminent?

Definition of a Recession: The textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Some examples of recessions in...

Sunday, 24 June 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 25

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2755, -0.89%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10822, 0.04%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
2890, -4.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1271, -0.61%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
68.58, 5.41%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
3.03, -3.74%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1347, -6.00%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1661, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
109.97, -0.59%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
10773, -2.72%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
35.86, -0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.90%, -0.82%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
697, -6.20%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
13.77, 14.94%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
141
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2755, At
Neutral
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2715, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2663, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10738, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10675, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10421, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.02, -0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Rupee
67.85, -0.45%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
4
5
Bearish Indications
10
9
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty was relatively unchanged last week. Indicators are bearish.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
New Zealand – RBNZ rate decision, UK- GDP, U.S – GDP, Canada – GDP, Euro zone – German employment data, CPI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals june 25
  
The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty was mostly unchanged last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The recent yield spike and dollar strength should limit upside in the short term. The critical levels to watch are 2765 (up) and 2745 (down) on the S & P and 10900 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Wednesday, 20 June 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

Emerging markets still looking pretty wobbly. A global trade war has begun in earnest. Valuations are still at peak levels. China looks flat out disastrous. Here's all this and more from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Sunday, 17 June 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 18

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2780, 0.02%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10818, 0.46%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3022, -1.48%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1279, -1.86%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
65.06, -1.03%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.14, -4.71%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1433, 2.72%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1617, -1.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
110.62, 1.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
11074, 1.24%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.95, 0.56%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.92%, -0.44%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
743, 7.87%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
11.98, -1.64%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
141
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2747, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2702, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2656, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10676, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10638, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10399, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.07, -4.94%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.16, 0.96%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
9
Bearish Indications
6
7
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were relatively unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – RBA meeting minutes, New Zealand – GDP, UK- BOE rate decision, U.S – Crude oil inventories, Canada – CPI, Switzerland – SNB Rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals june 18 

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were mostly unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The recent yield spike and dollar strength should limit upside in the short term. The critical levels to watch are 2790 (up) and 2770 (down) on the S & P and 10900 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.