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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 21 April 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 22

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2905, -0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
11753, 0.94%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3271, 2.58%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1278, -0.98%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
64.07, 0.28%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.92, -0.78%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
790, 8.82%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1246, -0.50%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
111.92, -0.10%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10988, 0.70%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.14, -0.22%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.56%, 0.15%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
1047, -1.65%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.09, 0.67%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
124
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2866, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2816, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2766, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11604, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
11203, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10983, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
22.73, 8.27%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.39, 0.32%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6
7
Bearish Indications
5
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mildly bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – GDP, Japan – BOJ rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals april 22

The S and P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are mildly bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to a major secondary top in global equity markets. The market got its oversold bounce of about 550 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has far exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2920 (up) and 2890 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11850 (up) and 11650 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.



Sunday, 14 April 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning April 15

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2907, 0.51%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11643, -0.19%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3189, -1.78%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1294, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
63.80, 1.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.94, 1.59%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
726, 2.11%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1306, 0.79%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
112.03, 0.29%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10912, 1.66%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.22, 0.70%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.56%, 2.38%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
1065, 6.76%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.01, -6.32%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
124
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2853, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2801, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2763, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11563, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
11179, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10969, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
21, 14.16%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
69.16 -0.01%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
12
12
Bearish Indications
2
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – Retail sales, Euro Zone – CPI, UK – Employment data, CPI, China - GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals april 15


The S and P 500 rallied and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are very close to a major secondary top in global equity markets. The market got its oversold bounce of about 550 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2920 (up) and 2890 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11750 (up) and 11550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.