About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Friday 15 May 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the Upcoming Week beginning May18

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change / Significance	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2123, 0.31%	Neutral**	Neutral
Nifty	8262, 0.90%	Neutral	Bullish
China Shanghai Index	4309, 2.44%	Bullish	Bullish
Gold	1223, 3.02%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	59.96, 0.82%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.93, 0.58%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	634, 10.45%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.146, 2.29%	Bullish	Bullish
Dollar/Yen	119.35, 0.39%	Neutral	Neutral
Dow Transports	8681, -0.98%	Bearish	Bearish
Nyse Summation Index	254, -17%	Bearish	Bearish
US Vix	12.38, -3.73%	Bullish	Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2105, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2089, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2033, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	8283, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	8522, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	8299, Below	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	19.82, 3.7%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	63.38, -0.5%	Neutral	Bullish

Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	10	9
Bearish Indications	2	6
Outlook	Bullish	Bullish
Observation	The S and P 500 is at the top of its trading range close to all time highs while the Nifty is sitting just below its 20 and 200 DMA. The summation index and transports are still diverging.
On the Horizon	Greece, EU and UK Inflation Data, EU Consumer confidence, Japanese GDP, US and Canada CPI

*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.