About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Friday, 15 May 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the Upcoming Week beginning May18

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2123, 0.31%
Neutral**
Neutral
Nifty
8262, 0.90%
Neutral
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
4309, 2.44%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1223, 3.02%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
59.96, 0.82%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.93, 0.58%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
634, 10.45%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.146, 2.29%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
119.35, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8681, -0.98%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
254, -17%
Bearish
Bearish
US Vix
12.38, -3.73%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2105, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2089, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2033, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8283, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8522, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8299, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
19.82, 3.7%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
63.38, -0.5%
Neutral
Bullish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
10
9

Bearish Indications
2
6

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The S and P 500 is at the top of its trading range close to all time highs while the Nifty is sitting just below its 20 and 200 DMA. The summation index and transports are still diverging.


On the Horizon
Greece, EU and UK Inflation Data, EU Consumer confidence, Japanese GDP, US and Canada CPI






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral








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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.