About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Friday, 1 May 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the week of May4

Indicator
Weekly Change / Significance
Implication for S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
-0.40%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
-1.50%
Neutral
Bearish
Gold
-0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
3.20%
Bullish
Bearish
Copper
7.30%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
-2.20%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
3.00%
Bullish
Bullish
Yen
-1.10%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
-1.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-14.10%
Bearish
Bearish
US Vix
3.30%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
Below
Neutral
Bearish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
7
3

Bearish Indications
5
10

Outlook
Marginally Bullish
Bearish

Observation
Summation index and Vix are flashing warning signs


On the Horizon
US Payrolls, Greece, UK elections






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy yahoo finance, Stock charts






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Cash - 40%
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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.