A close look at sectors can tell us where we are in the economic cycle. The chart below from Chris Vermeulen via LinkedIn shows that the dominant sectors currently are utilities and precious metals which occur typically at the very end of business cycles as we enter a major bearish phase:
About
Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.
Featured post
Time Series Analysis with GRETL
This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...
Tuesday 28 June 2016
Chart of the Day - Market Cycles and Sectors
Labels:
bearish,
business cycle,
market cycle,
sectors
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Sunday 26 June 2016
Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 27
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change / Significance
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2037, -1.63%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nifty
|
8089, -1.00%
|
Neutral**
|
Bearish
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
2854, -1.07%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1319, 1.34%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
47.57, -2.64%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Copper
|
2.12, 3.14%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
609, 3.75%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Euro
|
1.115, -1.50%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Yen
|
102.35, -1.71%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow
Transports
|
7320, -3.55%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
35.10, 0.43%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
1.58%, -2.41%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
772, -1.44%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
25.76, 32.72%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2021, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2092, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2080, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
8192, Below
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
7993, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
7775, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
18.63, 7.36%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
67.90, 1.24%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
5
|
6
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
10
|
11
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The
Sand P 500 and the Nifty were down last week following Brexit. Indicators are
bearish. Markets are breaking down from resistance and are headed
significantly lower in the near term.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
China
– PMI, Japan – CPI, Canada - GDP, Euro zone – German employment data, CPI, Euro
Zone CPI, Euro vote on Brexit, U.S – Consumer confidence, Personal consumption
expenditure, ISM
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
The US
market the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. The
markets are breaking down after failing at resistance several times. The Vix,
Transports and the Yen are flashing crash alerts. The India Vix is much
lower than the US Vix suggesting complacency. There could be a catch up to the
downside in the Indian Market soon. The critical levels to watch are 2050 (up)
and 2025 (down) on the S & P and 8150 (up) and 8000 (down) on the Nifty. A
significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above
markets. You can check out last week’s report for
a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance
levels of the S
and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love
your thoughts and feedback.
Labels:
baltic dry index,
bearish,
bond yield,
bullish,
china,
copper,
euro,
gold,
investing,
nifty,
nyse,
oil,
rupee,
S and P 500,
stock market,
stock signals,
trading,
transports,
vix,
yen
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 22 June 2016
Gold Rush Coming?
Is a gold rush coming much like in 2000 and have gold bears got it wrong this time around, Here is an interesting take from our partners at the The WallStreet Window:
Proof that the Gold Bears are Wrong – Mike Swanson
I am bullish on gold and I own gold and mining stocks, because gold is in a bull market. I have been trying to do my best to tell people this, but many people simply do not believe it. Gold and the mining stocks went through a very brutal bear market for five years and that makes it hard for people to believe that any of the rallies are real.What is more there are several “experts” that keep calling for gold to fall to $1,000 or even $250 an ounce that are scaring people out of gold. If you read this post you will see why these gold bears are wrong and know the one thing you need to know now that proves that gold is in a new bull market.
Then you will know that you do not have to be afraid and that you can take action. This is why people are looking at it.
What people are seeing is a rally up to $1,300 in gold this year and a pullback of that level happening right now.That pullback is making gold bears call for a crash again and scaring people out of gold and I know because I am getting lots of emails from people scared or trying to jump out of mining stocks in hopes of buying in at a much lower price.
This rally in gold has brought an over 100% gain for most mining stocks and has made the mining stock sector the best performing sector in the entire stock market so far this year. Those in mining stocks this year are killing the stock market. And yet people are scared of a giant gold drop. Here is what I see:
When you step back and look at the big picture of gold it is obvious that gold was in a bear market for a few years. You know that, but what is important is that during bear markets the 150 and 200-day moving averages slope down and act as resistance. But in January gold smashed through these moving averages and now those moving averages are turning up to act as support. I use classic stage analysis to identify whether a market is in a bull or bear market and it is obvious that gold is in a bull market now:
There are four stages to a financial market cycle in a stock or an entire financial market. As you know you can have a bull market. Before a bull market starts though you usually have a stage one basing phase in which a market simply goes sideways and builds a base. Then it breaks out and begins a full blown stage two bull market that typically lasts for several years. Then there is a stage three topping phase and then a stage four bear market.
There are various technical indicators you can use to determine when these stages are coming to an end so you can make the proper adjustments. That's a topic a little too big to get into now, but we can look at the basics right now. I can quickly show you one important indicator to watch to identify the trend the market is in. That's the long-term 150-day moving average, which is simply a line plotted on a chart using the average price number of the past 150-days.
In a bull market this line slopes up on a chart and the price of the market tends to stay above it, so it acts as a nice price support level in a bull market to make for a good entry point timing mechanism.
In a bear market this line slopes down on a chart and the price of the market tends to stay below it and it acts as resistance. So you can use this moving average to quickly identify the trend of a market. Then you can know if you should be bullish on a market or not.
Of course I have been pointing this out for the past several months and it has not stopped the gold bears from predicting more gold crashes and has not stopped people from trying to jump in and out of gold every time there is a little weakness so let me show you one more thing that is even more important. There is a huge powerful trend that happens in gold bull markets and that is that the mining stocks tend to lead the price of gold higher.
In bear markets the opposite happens. When there is a gold bear market the mining stocks tend to fall much more than the price of gold does. At big tops in gold and silver the mining stocks often stop going up. So when silver prices made a final top in 2011 the mining stocks simply sat there as silver went higher.
And now this year the mining stocks are leading gold up. When gold has a temporary pullback they just come off their highs a little bit and then go up more. Now you can chart out whether the mining stocks are doing better than gold or worse by using the simple HUI divided by the price of gold ratio.
Take a look at it:
As you can see the mining stocks lagged gold for years and a few months ago just started a new huge powerful trend of leading gold higher and outperforming gold.This is a huge predictor of gains to come for both mining stocks and gold and proves that the gold bears are simply wrong and mistaken.
For more on this visit our partner Michael Swanson on his website www.wallstreetwindow.com.
Labels:
bear market,
bull market,
gold,
gold miners,
hui
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Sunday 19 June 2016
Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 20
Indicator
|
Weekly
Level / Change
|
Implication
for
S
& P 500
|
Implication
for Nifty*
|
S
& P 500
|
2071, -1.19%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Nifty
|
8170, 0.00%
|
Neutral**
|
Neutral
|
China
Shanghai Index
|
2885, -1.44%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Gold
|
1302, 1.98%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
WTIC
Crude
|
48.86, -0.04%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Copper
|
2.05, 1.33%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Baltic
Dry Index
|
587, -3.93%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Euro
|
1.122, -0.22%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Dollar/Yen
|
104.22, -2.51%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
Dow
Transports
|
7590, -2.25%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
High
Yield (ETF)
|
34.95, -0.94%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
US
10 year Bond Yield
|
1.62%, -1.28%
|
Bullish
|
Bullish
|
Nyse
Summation Index
|
784, -20.89%
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
US
Vix
|
19.41, 13.98%
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
20
DMA, S and P 500
|
2089, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
50
DMA, S and P 500
|
2078, Below
|
Bearish
|
Neutral
|
200
DMA, S and P 500
|
2017, Above
|
Bullish
|
Neutral
|
20
DMA, Nifty
|
8123, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
50
DMA, Nifty
|
7935, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
200
DMA, Nifty
|
7768, Above
|
Neutral
|
Bullish
|
India
Vix
|
17.35, 8.64%
|
Neutral
|
Bearish
|
Dollar/Rupee
|
67.06, 0.14%
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Overall
|
S
& P 500
|
Nifty
|
|
Bullish
Indications
|
4
|
6
|
|
Bearish
Indications
|
10
|
8
|
|
Outlook
|
Bearish
|
Bearish
|
|
Observation
|
The
S and P 500 fell and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bearish.
Markets
are breaking down from resistance. Time to tighten those stops.
|
||
On
the Horizon
|
Euro
zone – German ZEW survey, England – Brexit vote,
U.S
– Durable goods
|
||
*Nifty
|
India’s
Benchmark Stock Market Index
|
||
Raw
Data
|
Courtesy
Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
|
||
**Neutral
|
Changes less than 0.5% are considered
neutral
|
The S and
P 500 fell and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Signals are bearish for the
upcoming week. The Vix, transports and the yen are flashing major warning signs.
The markets are breaking down from resistance and are likely to continue major
breakdowns in 2016. The critical levels to watch are 2080 (up) and 2060 (down)
on the S & P and 8250 (up) and 8100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant
breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.
You can check out last week’s report for
a comparison. You can also check out support
and resistance levels of the S
and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love
your thoughts and feedback.
Labels:
baltic dry index,
bearish,
bond yield,
bullish,
china,
copper,
euro,
gold,
investing,
nifty,
nyse,
oil,
rupee,
S and P 500,
stock market,
stock signals,
trading,
transports,
vix,
yen
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
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Forex Insight
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Play of the Day: AUD/CHF Gearing Up for a Breakdown? - The RBA kept interest rates on hold at 4.35% as expected but their statement was seen as less hawkish. What could this mean for AUD/CHF?25 minutes ago
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ASX 200 Index clings to near 7700 after RBA decides to keep rates unchanged - Read more on https://www.fxstreet.com45 minutes ago
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Market Insights Podcast – Central banks galore as FOMC, BOJ, RBA and BOE looms - OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Major central banks’ monetary policy decision...4 hours ago
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BoJ’s Pivot Imminent: Yen Ready for Takeoff or Tumble? Setup on USD/JPY - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years when it concludes its March policy meeting. The decision could trigger...7 hours ago
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Don’t be Fooled by the Pullback in the Dollar Because…. - Don’t be fooled by the pullback in the U.S. dollar today because the greenback could still strengthen further before the end of the year. Nearly all of the...5 years ago
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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook - EUR/USD's decline attempt was contained at 1.0494, above 1.0493 support and rebounded. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of ...7 years ago
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Loonie and Aussie Share Downward Bond - In yesterday’s post (Tide is Turning for the Aussie), I explained how a prevailing sense of uncertainty in the markets has manifested itself in the form of...12 years ago
Economic Calendar
India Market Insight
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Pakistan central bank maintains policy rate status quo for sixth straight meeting - [image: Pakistan central bank maintains policy rate status quo for sixth straight meeting] The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has kept the status quo on its ...30 minutes ago
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Nifty, 19 March 2024 Trade Plan - Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) displayed a Bullish approach in the Nifty Index Futures market by Buying 2674 contracts worth 295 crores, resulti...2 hours ago
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Rupee falls 29 paise to close at 82.68 against US dollar - During the day, the rupee touched a high of 82.45 and a low of 82.68 against the greenback. On Friday, the rupee had settled at 82.39 against the dollar.9 months ago
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ES Hourly cloud and 4 Hour chart - - ES Hour moving towards the hourly cloud which may act as resistance. - 4 Hour chart shows a possible bullish candle which may give new high's ...2 years ago
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JUST NIFTY BLOG 10-01-2020 - Bulk Deals FII DII Stats Date # of Deals Total Volume (In Millions) 01-01-1970 0 0.00 Click here to see all Bulk Deals Date Category Buy Amount (Rs. Cror...4 years ago
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Vist Note on Federal Bank - We recently met the senior management of Federal Bank which is one of the old private sector banks with a distribution network of 1252 branches (48% Kerala...5 years ago
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Nifty Bulls bounces ferociously holding 9930,EOD Analysis - FII's bought 4.8 K contract of Index Future worth 262 cores ,9.7 K Long contract were added by FII's and 4.8 K Short contracts were added by FII's. Net Ope...6 years ago
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Midcap & Smallcap Index Corrects, Lets Come Back To Fundamentals Again - Midcap Index had made a high of 18511 on 16th May 2017, fell almost 7% and is currently trading at 17230. Smallcap Index made all time high of 7679 on 11th...6 years ago
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Market outlook for 30/10/2016 - *Nifty closed up 22.75 points (0.26%) at 8638.00* while Future closed at 8667.40, premium of 29.40 points. *Bank Nifty closed up 41.35 points (0.21%) at 19...7 years ago
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Option Open Interest for 28-10-2016 - Inference The index opened flat to positive and after making an initial low around 8581 saw some short covering to close at 8638.00, gain of 22.75 points. ...7 years ago
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Market Review for 23rd August 2016 - *Nifty (8629)* we said ‘technically trend is still intact but there exists selling pressure near 8746 and support around 8600 zones’ the Nifty unfolded as...7 years ago
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ITC To Resume Cigarette Manufacturing - ITC manufactures a range of cigarette brands, including India Kings, Classic, Gold Flake, Navy Cut, Capstan, Bristol, Flake, Silk Cut, which are manufactur...7 years ago
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.