About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 5 June 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 6

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2099, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8221, 0.79%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2939, 4.17%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1247, 2.57%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
48.90, -1.33%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.12, 0.43%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
610, 0.66%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.136, 1.80%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
106.53, -3.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
7730, -0.54%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
35.13, 0.13%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.70%, -7.94%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
843, 15.23%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
13.47, 2.67%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2072, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2070, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2011, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7954, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
7836, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7777, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.99, -1.74%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.78, -0.37%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9

10
Bearish Indications
5
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are challenging resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – Rate decision, New Zealand – Rate decision,
U.S – Janet Yellen speech, U of Mich. consumer confidence, Canada – Employment data, India - RBI rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2110 (up) and 2080 (down) on the S & P and 8250 (up) and 8150 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.




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Cash - 40%
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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.