About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 12 June 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 13

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2096, -0.15%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8170, -0.62%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2927, -0.39%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1276, 2.39%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
48.88, -0.04%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.03, -4.41%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
611, 0.16%
Neutral
Neutral
Euro
1.132, -0.46%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
106.92, 0.37%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
7765, 0.45%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
35.28, 0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.64%, -3.81%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
990, 17.45%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
17.03, 26.43%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2083, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2076, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2015, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8043, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
7891, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7772, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.97, 6.50%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.97, 0.28%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
6

5
Bearish Indications
3
5
Outlook
Bullish
Neutral
Observation
The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed.
Markets are failing at resistance again. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
China – New loan data, Japan – Rate decision, Australia – Employment data, New Zealand – GDP, Switzerland – Rate decision, England – CPI, Rate decision,
U.S – Retail sales, FOMC rate decision, CPI, Canada – CPI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty fell last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. The big move up in the Vix is suggesting some serious down side ahead. The markets are failing at resistance and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016. 

The critical levels to watch are 2110 (up) and 2080 (down) on the S & P and 8250 (up) and 8100 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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Cash - 40%
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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.