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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 27 August 2017

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 28


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2443, 0.72%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
9857, 0.20%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3332, 1.92%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1299, 0.49%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
47.87, -1.62%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.06, 3.98%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1200, -3.77%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1931, 1.46%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
109.33, 0.13%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
9134, 0.42%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
37.13, 0.87%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.17%, -1.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
172, -28.60%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.28, -20.90%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
130
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2457, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2451, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2355, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
9926, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
9805, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
9054, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.57, -13.71%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
63.87, -0.32%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty


Bullish Indications
8

10

Bearish Indications
5
3

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty moved up marginally last week. Indicators are bullish.
The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.


On the Horizon
China - PMI, Euro Zone – German employment data, CPI, German PMI, UK – PMI, Canada – GDP, U.S – Consumer confidence, Oil inventories, employment data, GDP, ISM index






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




stock market signals august 28

The S and P 500 and the Nifty bounced slightly last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are back in complacency mode. Transports and the Yen are flashing warning signs. The markets are still trading at 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2455 (up) and 2430 (down) on the S & P and 9900 (up) and 9800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.