About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Showing posts with label bonds. Show all posts

Showing posts with label bonds. Show all posts

Wednesday, 22 August 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

The contagion in Turkey appears to be spreading to Brazil, with the Brazilian Real hitting new lows. The US economy continues to hum along with rate hikes on track despite emerging market woes and the strong dollar. The US markets continue to trade near record highs despite developing divergences. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Economy Emerging Markets Crisis Stock Markets

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 8 August 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

The Turkish economy and Lira in complete free fall as bond yields eclipse 20%. Chinese stocks continue to post declines and a hard Brexit looks increasingly likely. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 1 August 2018

Some Interesting Market Divergences

The recent up move in the market has come on waning market momentum and declining market breadth. Also the very narrow leadership shown by the FANG stocks is now developing cracks. With valuations still in the stratosphere and tightening by the FED still not priced in, these divergences are worth considering. Here are these and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Some Developing Market Divergences

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Saturday, 28 July 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

A bit of curve steepening going into next weeks fed meeting. Momentum clearly outpacing value and that ever expanding ECB balance sheet. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Thursday, 19 July 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

The Chinese yuan continues its sell off taking other emerging currencies with it. More curve flattening amidst insanely high valuations. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 11 July 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

Trump fires yet another salvo in the trade war with China, which should guarantee a recession down the line given all the curve flattening of late. Turkish bonds, lira and stock market still in free fall. A massive collapse in base metals like copper adding to the recessionary case down the line.These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Midweek Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 4 July 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

More trouble in emerging market land. Massive curve flattening across the globe. China free fall continues. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Midweek Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 27 June 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

China in absolute free fall and the collapse in the yuan is putting pressure on risk assets across the globe. While growth seems to be holding up in the US it is collapsing everywhere else and just a matter of time before the malaise spreads to the US. The emerging market currency rout continues. This and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 20 June 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

Emerging markets still looking pretty wobbly. A global trade war has begun in earnest. Valuations are still at peak levels. China looks flat out disastrous. Here's all this and more from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 30 May 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

The dollar continues to surge as the euro plunges in response to the crisis in Italy, which has sent Italian bond yields skyrocketing. A flight to quality in US bonds as a risk off trade emerges. Here are these and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Midweek Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 23 May 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

The dollar continues to surge and emerging market currencies like the Lira and the PESO are weakening. Italian credit spreads continue to widen and a broad risk off trade is emerging. Here is your mid week market insight on these topics from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Midweek Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 16 May 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

Global risk are piling up off late. Whether it be surging US bond yields or the surging dollar that has arisen out of a collapsing Euro following the Italian elections, risks to global asset classes are on the rise. The prospects for a waterfall decline similar to 1987 are fast rising. Here is your mid week market insight on these topics from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 9 May 2018

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily market insight from some of the best asset managers, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Daily Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 2 May 2018

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily market insight from some of the best asset managers, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Daily Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Wednesday, 25 April 2018

Bond Yields and Asset Allocation

While the current focus is on US 10 year bond yields pushing through 3% what is more important is the implication of surging bond yields for asset allocation decisions. First a look at a chart comparing 10 year bond yields to the earnings yield on the S and P 500. Thanks to the relentless QE's from the Fed the earnings yield is still well above the 10 year bond yield though the differential has narrowed considerably of late:

Earnings Yield Vs Bond Yield

data source: multpl.com, St. Louis Fed

Next a look at a chart comparing 2 year bond yields to the dividend yield on the S and P 500. After a very long period of time 2 year bond yields have now eclipsed the dividend yield on the S and P 500. Thus risk free assets are going to look increasingly attractive when compared to risky assets like stocks if yields surge further:

Dividend Yield Vs Bond Yield

data source: multpl.com, St. Louis Fed

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Thursday, 2 November 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:
Midweek Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Tuesday, 31 October 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:
Midweek Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Thursday, 26 October 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:
Midweek Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Tuesday, 24 October 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:

Midweek Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Thursday, 12 October 2017

Daily Market Insight

Here is your daily insight from global financial markets. Today's post is an aggregate of interesting news and views form the Stock, FOREX, Commodity markets and the Economy:
Midweek Market Insight

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.