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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Wednesday, 20 June 2018

Mid Week Market Insight

Emerging markets still looking pretty wobbly. A global trade war has begun in earnest. Valuations are still at peak levels. China looks flat out disastrous. Here's all this and more from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Sunday, 17 June 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 18

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2780, 0.02%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
10818, 0.46%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3022, -1.48%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1279, -1.86%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
65.06, -1.03%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
3.14, -4.71%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1433, 2.72%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1617, -1.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
110.62, 1.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
11074, 1.24%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.95, 0.56%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.92%, -0.44%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
743, 7.87%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
11.98, -1.64%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
141
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2747, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2702, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2656, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10676, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10638, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10399, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.07, -4.94%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.16, 0.96%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
9
Bearish Indications
6
7
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were relatively unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – RBA meeting minutes, New Zealand – GDP, UK- BOE rate decision, U.S – Crude oil inventories, Canada – CPI, Switzerland – SNB Rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals june 18 

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were mostly unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The recent yield spike and dollar strength should limit upside in the short term. The critical levels to watch are 2790 (up) and 2770 (down) on the S & P and 10900 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Sunday, 10 June 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 11

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2779, 1.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10768, 0.67%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3067, -0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1303, 0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
65.74, -0.11%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
3.30, 6.50%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1395, 27.98%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1778, 0.96%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
109.43, -0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10939, 0.41%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
35.75, 0.68%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.94%, 1.45%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
688, 32.48%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.18, -9.51%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
133
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2732, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2687, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2647, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10652, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10576, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10374, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.70, -6.43%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.51, 0.87%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10
10
Bearish Indications
1
2
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Australia – Employment data, Japan – BOJ rate decision, UK- Employment data, CPI, Retail sales, Euro – ECB rate decision, CPI, U.S – CPI, PPI, FOMC rate decision, Crude oil inventories, Retail sales, Russia – Rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals june 11

The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The recent yield spike and dollar strength should limit upside in the short term. The critical levels to watch are 2790 (up) and 2770 (down) on the S & P and 10850 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.