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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Showing posts with label nifty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nifty. Show all posts

Sunday, 14 October 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 15

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2767, -4.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10473, 1.51%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2607, -7.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1222, 1.36%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
71.34, -4.04%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.80, 1.36%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1579, 2.80%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1575, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
112.10, -1.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
10489, -6.40%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
35.50, -0.14%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
3.14%, -2.60%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-348, -3118%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
21.31, 43.79%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
126
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2887, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2877, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2766, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10875, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
11241, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
10779, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
18.63, -5.60%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
73.68, -0.52%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
5
7
Bearish Indications
9
9
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty rebounded last week. Indicators are bearish.
After a brief rebound the markets should resume a major collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
China – GDP, Australia – Employment data, New Zealand – CPI, UK Employment data, CPI, Euro Zone – CPI, Canada - CPI
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals october 15


The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. The markets are quite oversold near term and this rebound could last for a few days after which the selling would resume. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A major top has been established in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. This is going to be followed by a massive selloff and most likely a deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2780 (up) and 2755 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10550 (up) and 10400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Sunday, 7 October 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning October 08

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2886, -0.97%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10317, -5.62%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2821, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1206, 0.79%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
74.34, 1.49%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.76, -1.50%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1536, -0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
Euro
1.1529, -0.58%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
113.65, 0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
11207, -1.52%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
35.55, -0.91%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
3.23%, 5.53%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
12, -94.91%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
14.82, 22.28%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
130
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2908, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2877, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2763, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11151, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
11321, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
10780, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
19.73, 16.11%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
74.06, 2.15%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
4
2
Bearish Indications
9
13
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down last week. Indicators are bearish.
The markets are on the verge of a major collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – PPI, CPI, UK GDP
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 
stock market signals october 08
Weekly Stock Market Outlook


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were down hard last week. Indicators are comprehensively bearish for the upcoming week. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A major top has been established in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. This is going to be followed by a massive selloff and most likely a deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2900 (up) and 2875 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10400 (up) and 10200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.