Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 14

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2441, -1.43%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	9711, -3.56%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3209, -1.64%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1294, 2.32%	Bullish	Bullish
WTIC Crude	48.82, -1.53%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	2.91, 0.94%	Bullish	Bullish
Baltic Dry Index	1092, 6.74%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.1820, 0.39%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	109.17, -1.36%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	9199, -0.85%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	36.77, -1.21%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.18%, -3.44%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	460, -35.36%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	15.51, 54.64%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	135	Neutral	Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500	2470, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2448, Below	Bearish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2339, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	9962, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	9775, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	9004, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	15.19, 33.41%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	64.08, 0.52%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	5
Bearish Indications	10	12
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty experienced sell offs. Indicators are bearish. The market is topping. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon	Japan – GDP, China – Industrial production, Australia- RBA minutes, Employment data, Euro Zone – German GDP, CPI, UK – CPI, Employment data, Retail sales, Canada – CPI, U.S – Retail sales, Oil inventories, FOMC minutes
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty sold off significantly last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. Past and future FED rate hikes are yet to be priced in and sentiment indicators are finally shifting from complacency. Transports and the Yen are flashing warning signs. The markets are still trading at 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch are 2450 (up) and 2430 (down) on the S & P and 9800 (up) and 9600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.