About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 26 June 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 27

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2037, -1.63%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
8089, -1.00%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2854, -1.07%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1319, 1.34%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
47.57, -2.64%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.12, 3.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
609, 3.75%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.115, -1.50%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
102.35, -1.71%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
7320, -3.55%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
35.10, 0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.58%, -2.41%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
772, -1.44%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
25.76, 32.72%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2021, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2092, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2080, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8192, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7993, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7775, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
18.63, 7.36%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
67.90, 1.24%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications

5

6
Bearish Indications
10
11
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty were down last week following Brexit. Indicators are bearish. Markets are breaking down from resistance and are headed significantly lower in the near term.
On the Horizon
China – PMI, Japan – CPI, Canada - GDP, Euro zone – German employment data, CPI, Euro Zone CPI, Euro vote on Brexit, U.S – Consumer confidence, Personal consumption expenditure, ISM
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral



The US market the Nifty fell last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. The markets are breaking down after failing at resistance several times. The Vix, Transports and the Yen are flashing crash alerts.  The India Vix is much lower than the US Vix suggesting complacency. There could be a catch up to the downside in the Indian Market soon. The critical levels to watch are 2050 (up) and 2025 (down) on the S & P and 8150 (up) and 8000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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