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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Friday, 8 May 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the Upcoming Week beginning May11

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2116, 0.40%
Neutral**
Neutral
Nifty
8192, 0.10%
Neutral
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
4206, -5.3%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1187, 0.90%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
59.5, 0.40%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.91, -0.90%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
574, -2.20%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.120, 0.10%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
119.76, -0.3%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8767, 0.30%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
306, -37%
Bearish
Bearish
US Vix
12.86, 1.30%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2102, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2089, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2030, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8417, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8574, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8271, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
19.11, 11%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
63.75, 0.1%
Neutral
Neutral




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
4
1

Bearish Indications
5
9

Outlook
Marginally Bearish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 is at the top of its trading range while the Nifty is at the lower end of its range. The summation index is still flashing warning signs.


On the Horizon
Greece, Italy and German GDP, US PPI and retail sales






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral








I have added three new indicators this week, the Chinese stock market index, the India Vix and the Dollar/Rupee rate.
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.