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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Showing posts with label stock market signals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market signals. Show all posts

Sunday, 17 March 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 18

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2823, 2.89%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11427, 3.55%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3022, 1.75%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1303, 0.28%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
58.52, 4.37%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.91, 0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
730, 12.48%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1350, 1.06%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
111.50, 0.32%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10310, 1.91%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.66, 0.73%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.59%, -1.22%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
984, -8.24%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
12.88, -19.75%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
129
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2787, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2705, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2753, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10959, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10890, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10889, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.86, 6.19%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
68.94 -1.55%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
12
14
Bearish Indications
1
1
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – FOMC rate decision, Euro Zone – EU leaders summit, UK – Employment data, CPI, BOE rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals may 18


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are making a major secondary top in global equity markets. The market got its oversold bounce of about 450 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix has exceeded the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2835 (up) and 2810 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11500 (up) and 11300 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Sunday, 10 March 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning March 11

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2743, -2.16%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
11035, 1.58%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2970, -0.81%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1299, 0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
56.07, 0.48%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.89, -1.31%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
649, -2.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1231, -1.54%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
111.14, -0.81%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
10117, -3.30%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
35.40, -0.53%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.63%, -4.72%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
1072, -16.26%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
16.05, 18.28%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
126
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2769, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2674, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2751, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10840, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10840, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10869, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.94, -8.20%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
70.03 -1.37%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
2
7
Bearish Indications
12
9
Outlook
Bearish
Bearish
Observation
The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bearish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
US – CPI, PPI, Japan – BOJ rate decision, Euro Zone – CPI, UK – GDP, Parliament vote on Brexit deal
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals march 11


The S and P 500 was down and the Nifty was up last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are making a major secondary top in global equity markets. The market got its oversold bounce of about 450 points but a 5 year bear market is in the making. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. The India vix is finally catching up to the US vix suggesting there may be a sudden catch up on the downside for the Indian market in 2019. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2760 (up) and 2730 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11100 (up) and 10950 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.