About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Is a Recession Imminent?

Definition of a Recession: The textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Some examples of recessions in...

Showing posts with label stock market signals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market signals. Show all posts

Sunday, 9 December 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 10

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2633, -4.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
10694, -1.68%
Neutral **
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
2606, 0.68%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1253, 2.17%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
52.61, 3.30%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.76, -1.00%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1372, 11.45%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1384, 0.92%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
112.64, -0.78%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
9951, -8.03%
Bearish
Bearish
High Yield (ETF)
34.45, -0.33%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
3.01%, -1.34%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-359, 10.10%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
23.23, 28.56%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
114
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2712, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2758, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2762, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10684, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10567, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10745, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
18.59, -2.99%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
71.38, 2.37%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
7
9
Bearish Indications
8
8
Outlook
Bearish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a 5 year bear market. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Russia – Rate decision, Euro Zone – ECB rate decision, US – PPI, CPI, UK – GDP, Employment data, Vote on Brexit deal, Japan – GDP, Switzerland - SNB rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals december 10


The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are mixed for the upcoming week. The oversold bounce in global markets has likely stalled out near the declining 200 DMA’s and the 50 week moving averages that were violated for the first time in two years will likely act as strong resistance going forward. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year bear market is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2645 (up) and 2620 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10800 (up) and 10600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Sunday, 2 December 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 03

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2760, 4.85%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10877, 3.32%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2588, 0.34%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1220, -0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
50.93, 1.01%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.79, 0.76%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1231, 12.63%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1281, -0.46%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
113.52, 0.52%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10820, 4.35%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
34.56, 0.96%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
3.01%, -1.34%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-399, 17.68%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
18.07, -16.03%
Bullish
Bearish
Skew
115
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2722, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2775, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2762, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10622, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10614, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10741, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
19.16, 0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Rupee
69.73, -1.14%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
11
12
Bearish Indications
2
1
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are back at resistance. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Canada – BOC rate decision, Australia – RBA rate decision, GDP, CPI, US – Employment data, India - RBI rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals december 03


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. The oversold bounce in global markets has likely stalled out near the declining 200 DMA’s and the 50 week moving averages that were violated for the first time in two years will likely act as strong resistance going forward. The trend is changing from bullish to bearish. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A major top has been established in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and Hindenburg omens. We are on the verge of a multi-year deflationary collapse. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2770 (up) and 2750 (down) on the S & P 500 and 10950 (up) and 10800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


Ad

Stock Market News

Amazon Deals

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Trader Talk

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.