The Most Important Crowded Trade of All?

We have recently witnessed or are about to witness the implosion of a series of crowded trades namely long bitcoin, long Index ETF's and short volatility. The most important crowded trade of all is the dollar carry trade and this has been in vogue since the early 1980's. However the dollar appears to have broken out of its long term down trend line in the last 8 years post the great recession of 2008 though reluctantly so. When the real up move in the dollar occurs which is imminent look for massive carry trade liquidation and a rout in risky assets such as stocks, commodities and emerging market currencies:

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-12

1) The Rate Hike Stock Market Crash Has Thrown Gasoline Onto An Already Raging Global Financial Inferno

From theeconomiccollapseblog.com - Today, 7:03 PM

If the stock market crash of last Thursday and Friday had all happened on one day, it would have been the 7th largest single day decline in U.S. history.

2) Portugal's anti-austerity Left take power in watershed moment for the euro

From www.telegraph.co.uk - Today, 7:02 PM

AEP: The president threatened to sack the new government if it
challenges the EU's Fiscal Compact, deemed a formula for economic depression
by Keynesians

3) India pips US, China as No. 1 foreign direct investment destination - Times of India

From timesofindia.indiatimes.com - Today, 6:57 PM

India rises 16 places in Ranking Of Competitiveness

4) Buy the ETF, Not the Mutual Fund

From blogs.wsj.com - Today, 6:55 PM

On Dec. 10, Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund suspended its investors’ right to ask for their money back whenever they wish. That drastic step wasn’t unprecedented, however.

5) 2016: Why the bull market in stocks isn't dead yet

From money.cnn.com - Today, 6:55 PM

The U.S. stock market faces lots of threats in 2016. But market pros polled by CNNMoney think Wall Street will claw its way past these obstacles to reach new heights.

6) China to Extend Yuan’s Trading Hours, Widening Currency’s Appeal

From www.wsj.com - Today, 6:53 PM

China’s central bank, the PBOC, said it would increase the yuan’s trading day by seven hours, opening the currency to more foreign investors and narrowing the gap between the onshore and offshore foreign-exchange markets.

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-10

1) The S&P 500's Projected Index In 2016; Both P/E, Earnings And Economics

From seekingalpha.com - Today, 1:01 PM

The 2016 Index for the S&P 500 will be 1,958.83, a loss of -5.8%.2015 P/E was 19.5X in our current survey (12/1/15) and last survey it was 17.3X, an increase of 12.7%.S&P 500 has gone from 91 (19%) co"

2) 4 Harbingers Of Stock Market Doom That Foreshadowed The 2008 Crash Are Flashing Red Again

From theeconomiccollapseblog.com - Today, 2:21 PM

So many of the exact same patterns that we witnessed just before the stock market crash of 2008 are playing out once again right before our eyes.  Most of the time, a stock market crash doesn't just come out of nowhere."  

3) Should You Fear the ETF?

From www.wsj.com - Today, 12:21 PM

ETFs, after a spectacular run of popularity, are suddenly scaring regulators and some investors. We spell out the dangers—real and perceived."

4) 'It's not 1929 again': statistical evidence we are NOT heading for a bear market

From www.telegraph.co.uk - December 6, 9:54 PM

Is another bear market on its way? History’s lesson suggests there are four key ingredients and none are currently flashing red"

5) Globalization doesn't mean all stock markets are the same

From www.telegraph.co.uk - Today, 2:18 PM

Comment: It's not just about where you invest – but about the character of other investors in that market, writes Richard Evans"

6) The Stock Market Is Missing the Warning From Junk

From www.wsj.com - Today, 12:17 PM

Junk bonds are headed for their first annual loss since the credit crisis, reflecting concerns that a six-year U.S. economic expansion and stock-market boom are on borrowed time."