Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 18

 

Asset Class	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	5871, -2.08%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	23533, -2.55%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	3331, -3.52%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	2570, -4.63%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	66.92, -4.92%	Bearish	Bearish
Copper	4.06, -5.61%	Bearish	Bearish
CRB Index	280, -0.70%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1785, 19.40%	Bullish	Bullish
Euro	1.0541, -1.65%	Bearish	Bearish
Dollar/Yen	154.34, 1.12%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	17228, -0.73%	Bearish	Neutral
Corporate Bonds (ETF)	108.26, -1.45%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield Bonds (ETF)	96.36, -0.73%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10-year Bond Yield	4.44%, 3.22%	Bearish	Bearish
NYSE Summation Index	277, -24%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	16.14, 8.03%	Bearish	Neutral
S & P 500 Skew	150	Bearish	Neutral
CNN Fear & Greed Index	Neutral	Neutral	Neutral
Nifty MMI Index	Fear	Neutral	Bullish
20 DMA, S & P 500	5860, Above	Bullish	Neutral
50 DMA, S & P 500	5772, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S & P 500	5411, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	24269, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	24913, Below	Neutral	Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty	23530, Above	Neutral	Bullish
S & P 500 P/E	30.00	Bearish	Neutral
Nifty P/E	21.65	Neutral	Bearish
India Vix	14.78, 2.11%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	84.42, 0.03%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	4
Bearish Indications	15	15
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are topping. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon	Eurozone – German GDP, CPI, UK – CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Data courtesy stockcharts.com, investing.com, multpl.com, nseindia.com, tickertape.in
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

 

The S&P and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the week. Markets are topping. We are transitioning from an inflationary regime to a deflationary one. The sentiment is neutral, and risk-reward is poor at these levels. Carry trade liquidation may resume even as we enter a seasonally strong period. The Nifty has corrected from recent highs and will likely underperform after an oversold bounce.

The past week saw US equity markets fall. Most emerging markets fell as interest rates rose. Transports fell. The Baltic dry index rose. The dollar rose. Commodities fell. Valuations are expensive, market breadth fell, and the sentiment is neutral. Fear (S&P 500) rose as the reality of the FED pivot is kicking in.

After this rally, a currency crisis should resume and push risky assets to new lows. Despite the recent inflationary spike, deflation is in the air, and bonds are telegraphing just that. It feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is tracking closely the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low right ahead in the upcoming months (My views do not matter; kindly pay attention to the levels). A dollar rebound from significant support is a likely catalyst.

The S&P 500 is at all-time highs. We have bounced from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in, and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets should continue breaking to the downside as earnings growth peaks. The Fed has aggressively tightened into a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. After correcting significantly, the market has made new highs, and more is left on the downside. The Dollar, commodities, and bond yields are flashing significant warning signs.

Global yield curves have steepened after inverting significantly, reflecting a major economic slowdown. The recent steepening of the yield curve, within an inverted context, with rates falling, is a precursor to the next recession, and the riskiest assets will underperform going forward under such conditions. 

The critical levels to watch for the week are 5885 (up) and 5860 (down) on the S&P 500 and 23600 (up) and 23450 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched again and likely be a sell on every rise. Gold increasingly looks like the asset class to own over the next decade. (Gold exploded almost eight times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000. Imagine what would happen when this AI bubble bursts? following the recent crypto bubble burst) You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.