About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 26

Indicator Weekly Level / Change Implication for S & P 500 Implication for Nifty* ...

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Friday, 2 January 2015

Predictions for 2015

Dollar strength continues after a brief pause against all major currencies except the yen. With the Euro decisively breaking the long term support of 1.20.
EUR/USD (EURUSD=X)
GBP/USD (GBPUSD=X)

Yen strength should result in a bout of carry trade liquidation that is a major negative for risk assets such as emerging market currencies and commodities.
AUD/JPY (AUDJPY=X)
INR/JPY (INRJPY=X)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Despite slowing growth in most emerging economies, policy makers have their hands tied and spend a whole lot of resources defending their weak currencies unsuccessfully with higher interest rates.
USD/RUB (RUB=X)

This in turn sparks a major exodus of FII money flows out of emerging economies like the BRIC countries which causes their stock markets to significantly under perform despite their terrific performance in 2014 and greedy analysts calls for more.
CNX NIFTY (^NSEI)
IBOVESPA    - (^BVSP)
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX ETF UN (510210.SS)
Volatility surges in 2015 as the Vix index doubles following a major take down of stock market indices across the globe.
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
Risk free assets will be among the safer bets in 2015 as risk appetites significantly wanes with treasury yields continuing to plummet with QE forever still continuing but without the desired outcomes.
CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX)
Treasury Yield 30 Years (^TYX)

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Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.