About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Friday, 1 January 2016

Predictions for 2016

Here are my predictions for 2016:


1) 2016 is finally the year when the Euro breaches parity to the Dollar:

EUR/USD (EURUSD=X)

2) 2016 will prove to be a year of significant under performance of risk assets, particularly global stock markets and emerging market currencies:

S&P 500 (^GSPC)
USD/INR (INR=X)

3) 2016 will prove to be the year where carry trades get liquidated as significant Yen strength resumes:

EUR/JPY (EURJPY=X)
AUD/JPY (AUDJPY=X)

4) Volatility surges in 2016 as global risk aversion increases significantly:

VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.