About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 24 January 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning January 25

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
1907, 1.41%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7422, -0.21%
Neutral**
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
2917, 0.54%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1098, 0.88%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
32.25, 5.12%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.00, 2.80%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
354, -5.09%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.087, -0.37%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
118.78, 1.48%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
6779, 1.34%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
32.96, 0.70%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.05%, 0.74%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-770, -43.79%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
22.34, -17.32%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
1966, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2023, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2051, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7627, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7732, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8113, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
18.82, -3.06%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
67.58, -0.27%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications

9

10
Bearish Indications
6
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty were down early last week but recovered to post gains later in the week. Indicators are bullish. Looking for the oversold bounce to continue till FED day.
On the Horizon
Australia– CPI,  Canada – GDP, Japan- CPI, New Zealand – Rate decision, Euro zone – German and Euro CPI, U.K – GDP, U.S – Consumer Confidence, FOMC rate decision, Durable goods, trade balance, GDP.
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The US market and Nifty recovered last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The markets are in crash mode and are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this oversold bounce that should last till FED day. The critical levels to watch are 1920 (up) and 1880 (down) on the S & P and 7500 (up) and 7400 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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