Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Tuesday, 16 June 2015

Trading Strategies for Fed Day and Beyond

The Fed's first rate hike is still far away. Several key asset classes could head lower post the #Fed despite the FOMC affirming  a dovish outlook. Markets have been breaking down recently and the bearish trend could resume post the #FOMC. Let us look at some key markets:
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S& P 500
Current: 1958
Recent Lows – 1867
Recent Highs - 2021
The 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) – 2041
Outlook: Bearish
Long: 1950 Put
Hedge : 1980 Call


Current: 1.130
50 Day Moving Average (DMA) – 1.1108
50 Day Weekly Moving Average (DMA) – 1.1464
Outlook: Bearish
Long: 1.12 Put
Hedge : 1.14 Call

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Current: 109.21
50 DMA – 107.29
20 WMA – 110.44
Outlook: Bullish
Long: 110 Call
Hedge : 108 Put

United States Oil ETF (USO)
Current: 14.62
20 DMA - 14.48
Resistance : 
50 DMA – 15.24
20 WMA - 17.43
Outlook: Bearish
Long: 14.5 Put
Hedge : 15.5 Call

Current: 7981
Monthly lows – 7553
Recent Highs – 8091
Outlook: Bearish
Long: 7800 Put
Hedge : 8100 Call

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.