About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 28 June 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Market for the Week beginning June 29


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Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2101,- 0.40%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8381, 1.9%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
4193, -6.37%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1174, -2.18%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
59.65, -0.07%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.64, 2.62%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
823, 5.65%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1168, -1.74%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
123.87, 0.94%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
8242,- 2.01%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.48%, 9.22%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-208, -4.43%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
14.02, 0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2103, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2107, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2053, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8181, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8262, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8364, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.76, 4.47%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
63.45, -0.03%
Neutral
Neutral




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
4
7

Bearish Indications
8
6

Outlook
Bearish
Marginally Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 was nominally down last week while the Nifty outperformed significantly. The Vix, transports and summation index are flashing warning signs. Market cycles are favorable till July but indicators are turning bearish so a pull back is likely next week.


On the Horizon
Greece discussions, US, UK and Canada PMI data,  US payroll data






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison.

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.