About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Saturday, 20 June 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the Upcoming Week beginning June 22

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Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2110, 0.76%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
8225, 3.03%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
4478, -13.32%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1200, 1.63%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
59.69, -0.42%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.57, -3.83%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
779, 21.34%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1365, 0.94%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
122.70, -0.95%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
8412,- 0.06%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.27%, -4.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-199, -33%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
13.96, 1.31%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2104, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2106, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2050, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8177, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8302, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8352, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
15.09, -13.69%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
63.47, -0.98%
Neutral
Bullish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
8
9

Bearish Indications
5
6

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 rallied as expected last week while the Nifty outperformed significantly. The Vix is flashing warning signs. Market cycles are positive till July so a rally is likely next week.


On the Horizon
Greece negotiations, US, French and Italy Quarterly GDP, Japan CPI






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison.

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Cash - 40%
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Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.