About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Saturday 6 June 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the Upcoming Week beginning June 8

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2093, -0.69%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
8115, -3.78%
Bearish
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
5023, 8.92%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1172, -1.57%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
58.88, -2.24%
Bearish
Bullish
Copper
2.70, -1.21%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
610, 3.57%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.11, 1.02%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
125.52, 1.11%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
8510, 2.53%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.40%, 14.65%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
31, -82.27%
Bearish
Bearish
US Vix
14.21, 2.67%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2114, Below
Bearish
Neutral**
50 DMA, S and P 500
2101, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2045, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8303, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8395, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8335, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
18.09, 8.58%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.11, 0.58%
Neutral
Bearish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
6
6

Bearish Indications
10
12

Outlook
Bearish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 is correcting (support 2085) while the Nifty underperformed significantly last week. The summation index and treasuries are flashing warning signs.


On the Horizon
Greece, G7 meetings, US Retail Sales and PPI






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


You can check out last weeks report for a comparison.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.