About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 5 July 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Market for the Week beginning July 6


Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2077,- 1.18%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
8485, 1.24%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3913, -6.68%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1165, -0.72%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
56.50, -5.28%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.64, -0.15%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
794, -3.52%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1085, -0.75%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
123.06, -0.66%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
8123,- 1.46%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.39%, -3.35%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-328, -57.86%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
16.79, 19.76%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2095, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2105, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
8373, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8232, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8259, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8364, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
16.31, 3.46%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
63.31, -0.23%
Neutral
Neutral




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
2
5

Bearish Indications
12
10

Outlook
Bearish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 was down last week while the Nifty outperformed for a third week in a row. The Vix, transports and summation index are flashing warning signs. Indicators are decidedly bearish so a sell off is likely next week.


On the Horizon
Greece referendum reaction, US non Manufacturing ISM, UK and Australia rate decisions,  US FOMC minutes, China CPI, Australia and Canada employment data






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison.You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices.
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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.