About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 12 July 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Market for the Week beginning July 13

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Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2077,- 0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8361, -1.47%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3878, -0.89%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1163, -0.19%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
52.82, -6.51%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.54, -3.60%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
874, 10.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1160, 0.68%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
122.76, -0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8202, 0.97%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.42%, 1.00%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-403, -22.70%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
16.83, 0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
2088, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2100, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2056, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8329, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8276, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8381, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
17.07, 4.69%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
63.36, -0.08%
Neutral
Neutral




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
4
5

Bearish Indications
7
7

Outlook
Bearish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 was unchanged last week while the Nifty underperformed. Indicators are bearish but oversold so a sell off is likely after this oversold rally concludes.


On the Horizon
Greece discussions, China loan data, UK, US and Canada consumer prices, Euro ZEW economic sentiment survey, US retail sales, China GDP, Canada and ECB rate decisions, New Zealand consumer prices, Janet Yellen testimony, US consumer confidence






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


V8 Options
Signals are bearish for the upcoming week but indicators are oversold, so the oversold bounce that started last week may continue before the bears assert themselves . You can check out last weeks report for a comparison.

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.