Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Friday, 24 July 2015

Indian Stock Market Nifty Index, Technical and Fundamental Snapshot

As we are well into 2016 I thought it would make sense to look at the technical and fundamental snapshot of the Indian stock market #Nifty index. First the technicals. For this I turn to Brahmesh at Brahmesh Technicals. The Nifty has had a bullish break out over the 8000 mark. It is now turning down from old highs near 9000:
nifty technicals

Next the fundamentals, for this I turn to Sanjay Jaiswal at Market Pulse for the daily updated trailing #P/E ratio on the Nifty. As you can see below despite the recent fall it stood above 20.0. The market is obviously overvalued  at an earnings yield of less than 5.5%:

nifty fundamentals

Support: 8000
Resistance: 8400

Taken together the market appears over extended and ready for a fall both on technical and fundamental grounds.

1 comment:

  1. Nifty Opening Gap Down might test its current week low of 7780
    ARCHIVE 18 May, 2016
    Stock Market Today by Shailesh Saraf – 18th May 2016
    Indian Market Outlook:
    Nifty tested its multiple resistance zone from 7930 to 7950 yesterday. After making a high of 7957 in the second half Nifty reversed from its resistances to make a low of 7896 and closed at 7907. Today, Nifty is expected to open further gap down by 30 points at 7878 as per SGX Nifty at 8:45 am IST.

    International Market Outlook
    Oil prices are trading near 2016 highs on Wednesday, as supply disruptions and output cuts continued to tighten the market, although traders cautioned that high global crude inventories were still weighing on markets. S&P shed off the gains of 16th may yesterday after falling 36 points from its high yesterday to currently trade at 2015. In the Asian markets, Nikkei is testing its previous week high of 16804, which is also its range high. Hangseng and Shanghai Composite of China have already corrected from their range highs yesterday to make new lows today morning. The morning action signal a weakness in the global markets.
    For more details go to


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Cash - 40%
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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.