About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 26 July 2015

Stock Market Signals for the US and Indian Stock Markets for the Week beginning July 27

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Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2080, -2.21%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
8522, -1.03%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
4071, 2.87%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1098, -2.99%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
47.96, -5.55%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.39, -4.25%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1086, 3.63%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.0974, 1.18%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
123.76, -0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8073, -2.67%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.27%, -3.32%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
-282, -33.57%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
13.74, 14.98%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2091, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2102, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2064, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8485, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8343, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8406, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
15.46, 4.42%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
64.10, 0.97%
Neutral
Bearish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
5
7

Bearish Indications
12
9

Outlook
Bearish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 gave up the prior week’s gains and was down over 2% last week while the Nifty was down 1%. Indicators are bearish.
The summation index, vix and transports are flashing warning signs.  Market cycles are not favorable into mid August, so I am looking for more downside.


On the Horizon
US durable goods and consumer confidence, US FOMC decision, UK GDP, German unemployment data and CPI,  US GDP, Japan CPI, Euro zone CPI, Canada GDP, China PMI






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, Dailyfx


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


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Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. Bearish divergences and unfavorable market cycles into August could result in a sharp and sustainable correction near term. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison.You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices.

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.