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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Showing posts with label currency crisis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label currency crisis. Show all posts

Thursday 16 August 2018

Why a Massive Selloff in Risk Assets Could be Just a Few Days Away?

First market breadth is diverging with the New 52 week high low indicator not confirming the recent retest of highs in the S and P 500:

S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Stocks at 52-Wk Highs Minus Lows (S&P 500 NH-NL)

High beta segment of the market such as the Nasdaq is beginning to under perform the broader market much like in 2000:

S&P 500 vs Nasdaq Relative to its 200-Day Moving Average (Nasdaq R200)

The Skew Vix ratio as shown on stockcharts has spiked into double digits recently suggesting high tail risk, which is often a precursor to rising volatility and a risk off trade set up:

skew vix ratio


















All this as we are in the middle of an emerging market currency crisis much like in 1998 unsupported by a tightening FED:

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Tuesday 23 December 2014

BRIC Currency Crisis Bad for Indian Banking Stocks?

Weakness in the Indian #Rupee will most often translate into weakness for the Indian banking space as potential hawkishness forced on the #RBI in defense of the Rupee could hurt bank margins. The Rupee has weakened considerably since Russia raised interest rates to defend the slumping Ruble and more recently with China devaluing the Yuan.



Recent  topping action in the bank index could suggest a possible sell off in this space in anticipation of further Rupee weakness and potential hawkishness from the RBI. Just going back to August 2013 banks corrected over 30% when the Rupee fell to over 68 Rupees to the dollar and the RBI embarked on some serious tightening raising the overnight lending rate from 7% to 9%.

BANK NIFTY (^NSEBANK)
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Cash - 40%
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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.