Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Thursday, 3 December 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from Global Financial Markets-9

1) SP-500 Weekly Rounded Top Pattern - Fearless Forecasters

SP-500 Weekly Rounded Top Pattern - posted in Fearless Forecasters:"
Rajveer Rawlin's insight:
Rounding top nearing completion

2) Keeping An Open Mind About The U.S. Stock Market

Editor's note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on December 2, 2015.I have kept an open mind over the past few months as to whether the July-September decline in US equities was the first leg of a..."

3) Watch these 3 charts when the Fed makes a rate move

The Federal Reserve rate increase could come as early as December and there are still lots of factors that haven’t been priced into the markets, argue analysts at Société Générale."

4) This chart warns that stock market investors should be on high alert

The long-term downtrend in the high-yield, or “junk,” corporate bond market, is suggesting that liquidity is drying up, which could be warning that the stock market is in danger."

5) 3 Numbers: Eurozone deflation risk receding, but only slightly

The consensus points to a 0.3% rise in Eurozone CPI, but there's enough downside macro risk to make it likely more stimulus will be unveiled in tomorrow’s ECB announcement."

6) The GDP In Charts: Deflation Helps Indian Economy Grow 7.4% But Nominal Growth at 6%

India's GDP growth in the Sep 2015 quarter came in at 7.4%, which would be awesome, except that it's the "real" GDP, which is the number that you can see ("nominal" GDP) minus inflation."

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Cash - 40%
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Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.