About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 27 December 2015

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 28

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2061, 2.76%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7861, 1.28%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3613, 0.94%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1076, 0.96%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
38.12, 6.39%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.12, 0.64%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
478, 0.21%
Neutral
Neutral
Euro
1.0965, 0.89%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
120.28, -0.78%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
7623, 3.51%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
34.06, 1.40%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.24%, 2.00%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
-137, 43.89%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
15.74, -23.96%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2056, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2065, Below
Bearish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2062, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7792, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
7928, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8212, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
13.74, -5.16%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
65.95, -0.54%
Neutral
Bullish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications

11

12
Bearish Indications
4
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish. Markets are back at resistance and the Vix is signaling complacency.
On the Horizon
China-PMI.
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The US market the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to correct with most emerging markets, and commodities already breaking down on a strong dollar and a hawkish FED.  The critical levels to watch are 2080 (up) and 2050 (down) on the S & P and 7900 (up) and 7800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.