About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

US Stock Market Snapshot

[ View the story "US Stock Market Snapshot" on Storify ]

Ad

Sunday, 6 December 2015

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 07

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2092, 0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
7782, -2.02%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3525, 2.58%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1086, 2.81%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
40.14, -3.90%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.08, 1.14%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
563, -3.10%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.0900, 2.87%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
123.11, -0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
7955, -3.17%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.28%, 2.25%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
253, -0.15%
Neutral
Neutral
US Vix
14.81, -2.05%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2076, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2042, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2065, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7862, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7999, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8288, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
16.08, -3.86%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.64, -0.39%
Neutral
Neutral





Overall
S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
8
5

Bearish Indications
4
8

Outlook
Bullish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty was down last week. Indicators are mixed. Markets are back at resistance and the Vix is signaling complacency. Transports and the high yield market are flashing warning signs.


On the Horizon
Australia – Employment data, New Zealand – Rate decision, China – CPI, Loan and financing data, Euro Zone – GDP, U.K – Rate decision, Swiss – Rate decision US –Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




The US market was unchanged and the Nifty fell hard last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to continue to correct with most emerging markets, and commodities already breaking down on a strong dollar and a hawkish FED.  Transports and the high yield market are signaling trouble ahead. The critical levels to watch are 2100 (up) and 2080 (down) on the S & P and 7900 (up) and 7700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the markets very shortly. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Stock Market News

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Trader Talk

An Amazing Forex Product

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

Refurbished MacBooks

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.