About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 29 November 2015

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 30

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2090, 0.05%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
7943, 1.10%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
3436, -5.35%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1056, -1.91%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
41.77, 0.75%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.05, 0.69%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
581, 16.67%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.0595, -0.50%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
122.83, 0.06%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8215, -1.04%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.23%, -1.64%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
253, 32.59%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
15.12, -2.26%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2081, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2029, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2065, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
7905, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
7997, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8306, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
16.73, 5.24%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.91, 1.21%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications

9

7
Bearish Indications
4
8
Outlook
Bullish
Bearish
Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish. Markets are back at resistance and the Vix is signaling complacency. A major break out is likely this week.
On the Horizon
Australia - Rate decision, Canada - Rate decision, Swiss – Retail sales, Euro zone – German employment data, CPI & PPI, ECB rate decision, U.S – employment data, India – Rate decision, GDP.
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


The US market was up slightly and the Nifty rallied last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. The markets are back at resistance and are likely to correct with most emerging markets, and commodities already breaking down on a strong dollar and a hawkish FED.  The critical levels to watch are 2100 (up) and 2065 (down) on the S & P and 8000 (up) and 7800 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.