About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 1 November 2015

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 2

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2079, 0.20%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8066,- 2.77%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3383, -0.88%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1142, -1.92%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
46.39, 3.71%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.32, -1.38%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
721, -6.85%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1007, -0.07%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
120.61, -0.70%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
8128, -2.02%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.15%, 3.26%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
412, 10.55%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
15.07, 4.22%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2034, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1980, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2062, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8172, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
8016, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
8375, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
17.88, 10.42%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
65.39, 0.58%
Neutral
Bearish




Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
5
2

Bearish Indications
8
13

Outlook
Bullish
Bullish

Observation
The Sand P 500 was unchanged and the Nifty significantly under performed last week. Indicators are bearish. The Vix is still indicating complacency. Looking for a top soon.


On the Horizon
 Australia – RBA rate decision, New Zealand – Employment data, Canada - Employment data, U.K – Asset Purchases, BOE rate decision, U.S – ISM, Employment data.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral



The US market was unchanged last week while the Nifty sold off sharply. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week and the recent bounce is on the verge of completion. The markets are likely top out soon, with most emerging markets and commodities already breaking down. There will be more& downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last weeks report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P
500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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