About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 15 November 2015

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 16

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2023, -3.63%
Bearish
Bearish
Nifty
7762,- 2.41%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3581, -0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1083, -0.51%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
40.73, -8.51%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.16, -3.61%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
560, -11.25%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.0771, 0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
122.61, -0.45%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
8010, -2.80%
Bearish
Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.28%, -2.27%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
287, -43.05%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
20.08, 40.13%
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2071, Below
Bearish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2008, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2064, Below
Bearish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8085, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7981, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8351, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
17.65, -9.35%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.10, 0.06%
Neutral
Neutral





Overall
S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
2
2

Bearish Indications
10
8

Outlook
Bullish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 and the Nifty were down big last week. Indicators are bearish. Markets are getting oversold, so we may get a short term bounce from near the 2000 level on the S &P 500.


On the Horizon
Canada – CPI, China – Loan data, Euro Zone – ZEW Sentiment Survey, Japan – GDP, U.K – CPI, U.S – CPI, Fed Minutes.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




The US market was and the Nifty sold off sharply last week. Signals are bearish for the upcoming week. The markets are likely to continue to correct with most emerging markets, and commodities already breaking down on a strong dollar and a hawkish FED. An oversold bounce may occur from levels near 2000 on the S & P 500. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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