About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 26

Indicator Weekly Level / Change Implication for S & P 500 Implication for Nifty* ...

Ad

Sunday, 8 November 2015

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning November 9

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change / Significance
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2099, 0.95%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
7954,- 1.38%
Neutral**
Bearish
China Shanghai Index
3590, 6.13%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1089, -4.62%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
44.52, -4.03%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.24, -3.15%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
631, -12.48%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.0743, -2.40%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
123.17, 2.07%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
8241, 1.39%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.33%, 8.46%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
503, 21.99%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
14.33, -4.91%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2060, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
1997, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2063, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8149, Below
Neutral
Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty
7988, Below
Neutral
Bearish
200 DMA, Nifty
8375, Below
Neutral
Bearish
India Vix
19.47, 8.91%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
66.06, 1.03%
Neutral
Bearish





Overall
 S & P 500
Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
5

Bearish Indications
6
12

Outlook
Bullish
Bearish

Observation
The Sand P 500 was up and the Nifty significantly under performed last week. Indicators are bullish for the S & P but bearish for the Nifty. The Vix is still indicating complacency. Looking for a pull back soon.


On the Horizon
Australia – Employment data, China – Loan data, CPI, Euro Zone – German & Euro zone GDP, U.S – Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence.






*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index


Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM


**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral




The US market was up last week while the Nifty sold off sharply. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week and the recent rally is on the verge of completion. The markets are likely to correct soon, with most emerging markets, and commodities already breaking down on a strong dollar and a hawkish FED. There will be more downside upcoming in the #Nifty and the S and P 500, with at least a retest of the lows for the S and P 500 near 1867 and Nifty near 7550 in the upcoming months. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out snapshots of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Offers

Stock Market News

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Trader Talk

An Amazing Forex Product

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

Refurbished MacBooks

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.