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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Wednesday, 31 August 2016

Chart of the Week - BOJ Stock Market Casino

The chart of the week is courtesy Doug Wakefield via Safe Haven and shows that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is a top 10 share holder in about 90% of the Nikkei 225. This after the Nikkei has been down nearly 60% since its highs in 1989. After multiple QE's that have failed to stimulate the economy and get rid of the deflationary negative interest rate scenario in Japan, this latest move by the BOJ has failure written all over it. Another down move in the Nikkei from a strengthening Yen could prove to be problematic for the BOJ going forward.

BOJ is Top 10 Shareholder in about 90% of Nikkei 225
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Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.