About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

US Stock Market Snapshot

[ View the story "US Stock Market Snapshot" on Storify ]

Ad

Sunday, 7 August 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 8

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2183, 0.43%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8683, 0.52%
Neutral**
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2977, -0.09%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1344, -0.99%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
41.80, 0.48%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.15, -3.04%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
636, -3.05%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.109, -0.77%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
101.79, -0.24%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
7867, 0.26%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (ETF)
36.04, 0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.58%, 8.50%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
1103, -10.23%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.39, -4.04%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2165, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2119, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2045, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8573, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8357, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7857, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.35, -3.79%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
66.84, 0.18%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
4

6
Bearish Indications
6
5
Outlook
Bearish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up slightly last week. Indicators are mixed.
Markets are at resistance. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
China – CPI, Financing and loan data, India – RBI rate decision,
New Zealand – Rate decision, Euro Zone – German CPI, Italy, German and Euro zone GDP,
US – Retail sales, U. Mich. consumer confidence data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, FXCM
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral



The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up slightly last week. Signals are mixed for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency despite the market making nominal new highs.  The markets are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2190 (up) and 2170 (down) on the S & P and 8750 (up) and 8550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Stock Market News

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Trader Talk

An Amazing Forex Product

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

Refurbished MacBooks

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.