About

Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 21 August 2016

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning August 22

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2184, -0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
Nifty
8667, -0.05%
Neutral**
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3108, 1.88%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1346, 0.22%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
49.11, 10.38%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.17, 1.26%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
683, 1.79%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.133, 1.40%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
100.19, -1.04%
Bearish
Bearish
Dow Transports
7930, 1.58%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
36.54, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.58%, 4.16%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
992, -6.87%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
11.34, -1.82%
Bullish
Bullish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2176, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2135, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2050, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
8628, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
8437, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
7876, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
14.54, 5.57%
Neutral
Bearish
Dollar/Rupee
67.12, 0.32%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10

10
Bearish Indications
3
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish.
Markets are at the top of their recent trading ranges. Time to tighten those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – CPI,
U.K – GDP,
US – Durable Goods, Trade balance, GDP, Janet Yellen speech
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, dailyfx.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral



The S and P 500 and the Nifty were unchanged last week. Signals are bullish for the upcoming week. The Vix is suggesting complacency despite the market making nominal new highs and momentum, breadth and sentiment indicators are showing divergences.  The markets are likely to continue major breakdowns in 2016 after this rally concludes. The critical levels to watch are 2190 (up) and 2170 (down) on the S & P and 8750 (up) and 8550 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. You can also check out support and resistance levels of the S and P 500 and Nifty Indices. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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