About

Ahead of the Curve provides analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity, and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher, having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests include capital markets, banking, investment analysis, and portfolio management, and he has over 20 years of experience in the above areas, covering the US and Indian markets. He has several publications in the above areas. He currently teaches business and management students at CHRIST University. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Monday, 8 August 2016

Governor Rajan's Track Record at the RBI

A very short tenure but an impeccable track record nonetheless. Here is an overview of Governor Rajan's track record from CNBC TV18 as we approach his final RBI policy meet:

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Economic Calendar

GMT-4		Event	Actual	Consensus
Thursday, Jul 24
10:00	US	New Home Sales (MoM)	0.627M	0.650M
10:30	US	EIA Natural Gas Storage Change	23B	28B
11:00	US	Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity	-3
11:30	US	4-Week Bill Auction	4.245%
13:00	US	10-year TIPS Auction	1.985%
19:01	UK	GfK Consumer Confidence		-20
Friday, Jul 25
02:00	UK	Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)		2.0%
02:00	UK	Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)		1.2%
02:00	UK	Retail Sales (YoY)		1.8%
02:00	UK	Retail Sales (MoM)		1.2%

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.