Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 02

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2718, -1.33%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	10714, -0.99%	Neutral **	Bearish
China Shanghai Index	2847, -1.47%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1255, -1.27%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	74.15, 8.12%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	2.97, -2.02%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1329, -1.34%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1694, 0.28%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	110.61, 0.58%	Bullish	Bullish
Dow Transports	10345, -3.97%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.48, -1.06%	Bearish	Bearish
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.85%, -1.76%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	541, -22.35%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	16.09, 16.85%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	142	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2755, Below	Bearish	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2717, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2669, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10745, Below	Neutral	Bearish
50 DMA, Nifty	10692, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10440, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.94, 7.61%	Neutral	Bearish
Dollar/Rupee	68.44, 0.87%	Neutral	Bearish
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	5	4
Bearish Indications	11	13
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish. The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	U.S – Employment data
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

The S and P 500 and the Nifty fell last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The recent yield spike and dollar strength should limit upside in the short term. High yield is diverging from the oil price and so are transports from the major indices. The critical levels to watch are 2730 (up) and 2705 (down) on the S & P and 10800 (up) and 10600 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

Mid Week Market Insight

China in absolute free fall and the collapse in the yuan is putting pressure on risk assets across the globe. While growth seems to be holding up in the US it is collapsing everywhere else and just a matter of time before the malaise spreads to the US. The emerging market currency rout continues. This and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:

Mid Week Market Insight

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning June 25

Indicator	Weekly Level / Change	Implication for S & P 500	Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500	2755, -0.89%	Bearish	Bearish
Nifty	10822, 0.04%	Neutral **	Neutral
China Shanghai Index	2890, -4.37%	Bearish	Bearish
Gold	1271, -0.61%	Bearish	Bearish
WTIC Crude	68.58, 5.41%	Bullish	Bullish
Copper	3.03, -3.74%	Bearish	Bearish
Baltic Dry Index	1347, -6.00%	Bearish	Bearish
Euro	1.1661, 0.39%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Yen	109.97, -0.59%	Bearish	Bearish
Dow Transports	10773, -2.72%	Bearish	Bearish
High Yield (ETF)	35.86, -0.25%	Neutral	Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield	2.90%, -0.82%	Bullish	Bullish
Nyse Summation Index	697, -6.20%	Bearish	Neutral
US Vix	13.77, 14.94%	Bearish	Bearish
Skew	141	Bearish	Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500	2755, At	Neutral	Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500	2715, Above	Bullish	Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500	2663, Above	Bullish	Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty	10738, Above	Neutral	Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty	10675, Above	Neutral	Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty	10421, Above	Neutral	Bullish
India Vix	12.02, -0.39%	Neutral	Neutral
Dollar/Rupee	67.85, -0.45%	Neutral	Neutral
Overall	S & P 500	Nifty
Bullish Indications	4	5
Bearish Indications	10	9
Outlook	Bearish	Bearish
Observation	The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty was relatively unchanged last week. Indicators are bearish. The markets have made important tops. Time to watch those stops.
On the Horizon	New Zealand – RBNZ rate decision, UK- GDP, U.S – GDP, Canada – GDP, Euro zone – German employment data, CPI
*Nifty	India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data	Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral	Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral

  

The S and P 500 fell and the Nifty was mostly unchanged last week. Indicators are bearish for the upcoming week. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The recent yield spike and dollar strength should limit upside in the short term. The critical levels to watch are 2765 (up) and 2745 (down) on the S & P and 10900 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.