About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts

Sunday 2 July 2017

US Stock Market Snapshot




Tuesday 23 August 2016

Chart of the Week - S & P 500 real sales growth

The chart of the week is via multpl.com and tracks real sales growth of the S & P 500 companies. Real sales growth as measured by the annual change in sales adjusted for inflation entered negative territory in 2015 and continues to remain so. The last time this occurred was in 2009. Will there be a similar price adjustment to reflect the declining fundamentals?

s & p 500 real sales growth

Tuesday 12 July 2016

Chart of the Week - Historical Inflation View

The chart of the week is courtesy MarketWatch and shows inflation levels over time. We have been in a dis-inflationary phase for over 20 years now and could soon enter a deflationary spiral as record levels of quantitative easing (QE) have failed to spark an upthrust in inflation:

inflation

Tuesday 13 October 2015

Interesting Market News and Views from global financial markets-2

1) Stock Market Crash October 2015? 9 of the 16 Largest Crashes in History Have ... - Charisma News

There is just something about this time of year that seems to be conducive to financial panic."

2) Street eyes stock market recovery, bank earnings - CNBC

Traders will look for further confirmation Tuesday that the stock market has found its footing, ahead of the first major bank earnings."

3) The Stock Market Is Poised for a Huge Selloff -- Don't Be Fooled by the Recent ... - TheStreet.com

The stock market's recent rally was in the context of a bear market and offers investors the perfect exit before the coming collapse.. S&P 500 Index(^GSPC)"

4) Are We Too Obsessed About Deflation? - Bloomberg

Madhur Jha, senior global economist at Standard Chartered, discusses the impact of global inflation and deflation. She speaks to Bloomberg's Caroline Hyde on "Countdown." (Source: Bloomberg)"



5) Deflation in Wholesale Price Index to decline:India Ratings - Moneycontrol.com

A reversal in the base effect will lead to lower deflation in the wholesale price index (WPI) and a rise in the consumer price index (CPI) in September says India Ratings"



6) QE Causes Deflation, Not Inflation

RT @DA_Stockman: QE Causes Deflation, Not Inflationhttp://t.co/Fytko0GlfO

Here are some more interesting market news and views.


Wednesday 10 June 2015

Some Great Reads from the World of Economics and Financial Markets

stock market live
VELOCITY of Money Below Great Depression Levels
Forecaster Martin Armstrong writes on how the velocity of money today is below levels that were observed in the Great Depression (#greatdep).


Tara Clarke at Money Morning analyses Nobel Laureate and Yale professor of economics Robert Shiller's views.

Craig Erlam at MarketPulse discusses the rational for a #stimulus in China following soft inflation figures.

Michael Snyder at the Economic Collapse Blog provides an insight on countries with and without Central Banks.

Dr. Pipslow at BabyPips.com offers some key pointers on trading large Forex positions.


Barry Ritholtz  at The Big Picture writes about the improving labour market in the US.

San at Nifty charts and patterns provides a technical update on India's benchmark stock market #Nifty Index.

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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.