Trading Strategies for Fed Day and Beyond

The Fed's first rate hike is still far away. Several key asset classes could head lower post the #Fed despite the FOMC affirming  a dovish outlook. Markets have been breaking down recently and the bearish trend could resume post the #FOMC. Let us look at some key markets:


S& P 500
Current: 1958

Support: 

Recent Lows – 1867

Resistance: 

Recent Highs - 2021

The 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) – 2041

Outlook: Bearish

Long: 1950 Put

Hedge : 1980 Call

Euro:

Current: 1.130

Support: 

50 Day Moving Average (DMA) – 1.1108

Resistance: 

50 Day Weekly Moving Average (DMA) – 1.1464

Outlook: Bearish

Long: 1.12 Put

Hedge : 1.14 Call

Gold ETF GLD:

Current: 109.21

Support: 

50 DMA – 107.29

Resistance: 

20 WMA – 110.44

Outlook: Bullish

Long: 110 Call

Hedge : 108 Put

Oil ETF USO:

Current: 14.62

Support:
20 DMA - 14.48

Resistance : 

50 DMA – 15.24
20 WMA - 17.43

Outlook: Bearish

Long: 14.5 Put

Hedge : 15.5 Call

Nifty:

Current: 7981

Support: 

Monthly lows – 7553

Resistance: 

Recent Highs – 8091

Outlook: Bearish

Long: 7800 Put

Hedge : 8100 Call

Trading Strategies for Fed Day and Beyond http://t.co/eYo9u5bwMJ pic.twitter.com/K9VVPiBl5o

— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 17, 2015

Bear Market Lessons from History

While the financial media tends to be absolutely infatuated with stocks hitting new highs every day, we would do well to pay attention to some ongoing bear markets, Charts are courtesy yahoo finance and marketwatch.com:

1) Japanese stocks continue to languish under the effects of deflation following a well over 26 year old bear market, down over 45% from the highs set in 1989.



2) Despite some great innovation out of the U.S from the likes of Apple, Google, Facebook e.t.c the #NASDAQ continues to remain in a 15 year bear market near its highs set in 2000.



3) Despite going parabolic yet again, Chinese stocks continue to remain in a 7 year bear market down well over 50% from the highs set in 2008.

4) US bank stocks are entering a 7 year bear market despite all the #QE money and super low interest rates down over 30% from their highs set in 2008.



5) The #Euro is also in a 7 year bear market down over 25% against the dollar from it's highs set in 2008.



6) #Gold and gold ETF's continue to be in bear markets down well over 35% from their highs set in 2008.



7) The more recent casualty #oil and oil ETF's are down well over 60% from their highs set in 2008.




It is well worth noting that it is no strange coincidence that there are major bear markets in several key asset classes and despite recent bear market rallies caused by the FED's QE for ever policies the hibernating bear is all set to emerge with a vengeance.

Bear market lessons from history from Rajveer Rawlin

Bear Market Lessons From History http://t.co/TcQy3nOE0r pic.twitter.com/wNba6Jh5Ys

— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 7, 2015