About

Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

Featured post

Time Series Analysis with GRETL

This video shows key time-series analyses techniques such as ARIMA, Granger Causality, Co-integration, and VECM performed via GRETL. Key dia...

Sunday 29 December 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 30

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
3240, 0.58%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
12246, -0.21%
Neutral **
Neutral
China Shanghai Index
3005, 0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1516, 2.35%
Bullish
Bullish
WTIC Crude
61.70, 2.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.82, 0.64%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1094, -2.94%
Bearish
Bearish
Euro
1.1176, 0.88%
Bullish
Bullish
Dollar/Yen
109.44, -0.00%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10937, 0.33%
Neutral
Neutral
High Yield (Bond)
109.55, 0.25%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.88%, -2.27%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
857, 18.18%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
13.43, 7.35%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
140
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
3170, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
3111, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2964, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
12083, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
11938, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
11552, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
10.53, -14.60%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
71.46, 0.56%
Neutral
Bearish


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10
10
Bearish Indications
3
4
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Euro Zone – German Employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals december 30


The S and P 500 was up and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are likely making another major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities and insane valuations. A massive drop in the S and P 500 looks imminent. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3250 (up) and 3230 (down) on the S & P 500 and 12350 (up) and 12150 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback. Season’s Greetings!



No comments:

Post a Comment

World Indices


Live World Indices are powered by Investing.com

Market Insight

My Favorite Books

  • The Intelligent Investor
  • Liars Poker
  • One up on Wall Street
  • Beating the Street
  • Remniscience of a stock operator

See Our Pins

Trading Ideas

Forex Insight

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar >> Add to your site

India Market Insight

My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)

Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.