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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday 1 December 2019

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning December 02

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
3141, 0.99%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
12056, 1.19%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2872, -0.46%
Neutral
Neutral
Gold
1470, -0.01%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
55.42, -4.07%
Bearish
Bearish
Copper
2.66, 0.08%
Neutral
Neutral
Baltic Dry Index
1440, 12.15%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1017,- 0.06%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
109.52, 0.79%
Bullish
Bullish
Dow Transports
10858, 0.67%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (Bond)
108.34, 0.39%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
1.77%, -0.29%
Neutral
Neutral
Nyse Summation Index
560, 2.95%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
12.70, 2.92%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
130
Neutral
Neutral
20 DMA, S and P 500
3105, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
3029, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2927, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
11964, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
11626, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
11434, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
13.90, -6.56%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
71.75, -0.06%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
8
9
Bearish Indications
2
2
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the week.
The markets are on the verge of a great depression style collapse. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
India – RBI rate decision, US – Employment data
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals december 02


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. QE forever from the FED is about to trigger the deflationary collapse of the century and we are likely making another major top in global equity markets. The market is looking like the short of a life time with non-conformations from the transports, other global indices and commodities and insane valuations. A massive drop in the S and P 500 looks imminent. The trend is about to change from bullish to bearish and the markets are about to get smashed by a strong dollar. Looking for significant under performance in the Nifty going forward on rapidly deteriorating macros. A 5 year deflationary wave is about to start in key asset classes like the Euro, stocks and commodities amidst a number of bearish divergences and over stretched valuations. We are on the verge of a multi-year great depression. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk has been very high off late as the yield curve inverts. The critical levels to watch for the week are 3150 (up) and 3130 (down) on the S & P 500 and 12150 (up) and 11950 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.