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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 29 July 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 30

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2819, 0.61%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
11278, 2.44%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2874, 1.57%
Bullish
Bullish
Gold
1223, -0.66%
Bearish
Bearish
WTIC Crude
68.69, 0.63%
Bullish
Bullish
Copper
2.80, 1.67%
Bullish
Bullish
Baltic Dry Index
1708, 3.08%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1661, -0.53%
Bearish
Bearish
Dollar/Yen
110.98, -0.45%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10957, 2.01%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.84, 0.36%
Neutral
Neutral
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.96%, 2.25%
Bearish
Bearish
Nyse Summation Index
581, -9.98%
Bearish
Neutral
US Vix
13.03, 1.32%
Bearish
Bearish
Skew
145
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2788, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2762, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2695, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10957, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10800, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10538, Above
Neutral
Neutral
India Vix
12.31, -9.05%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.60, -0.20%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
9
10
Bearish Indications
6
5
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish.
The markets are close to making secondary tops. Watch those stops.
On the Horizon
Japan – BOJ rate decision, New Zealand – Employment data, Europe – German employment data, CPI, U.K – BOE rate decision, U.S – FOMC rate decision, Employment data, Canada – GDP, India – Rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals july 30


The S and P 500 and the Nifty were up last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. This rally is close to a major secondary top in key asset classes. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. Tail risk is also very high. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2830 (up) and 2805 (down) on the S & P 500 and 11400 (up) and 11200 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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