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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Sunday, 8 July 2018

Market Signals for the US stock market S and P 500 Index and Indian Stock Market Nifty Index for the Week beginning July 09

Indicator
Weekly Level / Change
Implication for
S & P 500
Implication for Nifty*
S & P 500
2760, 1.52%
Bullish
Bullish
Nifty
10773, 0.54%
Neutral **
Bullish
China Shanghai Index
2747, -3.52%
Bearish
Bearish
Gold
1256, 0.10%
Neutral
Neutral
WTIC Crude
73.80, -0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
Copper
2.82, -4.79%
Bearish
Bearish
Baltic Dry Index
1612, 21.29%
Bullish
Bullish
Euro
1.1750, 0.47%
Neutral
Neutral
Dollar/Yen
110.41, -0.18%
Neutral
Neutral
Dow Transports
10474, 1.25%
Bullish
Bullish
High Yield (ETF)
35.56, 0.70%
Bullish
Bullish
US 10 year Bond Yield
2.83%, -0.63%
Bullish
Bullish
Nyse Summation Index
577, 6.62%
Bullish
Neutral
US Vix
13.37, -16.90%
Bullish
Bullish
Skew
141
Bearish
Bearish
20 DMA, S and P 500
2750, Above
Bullish
Neutral
50 DMA, S and P 500
2724, Above
Bullish
Neutral
200 DMA, S and P 500
2674, Above
Bullish
Neutral
20 DMA, Nifty
10756, Above
Neutral
Bullish
50 DMA, Nifty
10706, Above
Neutral
Bullish
200 DMA, Nifty
10456, Above
Neutral
Bullish
India Vix
12.44, -3.83%
Neutral
Bullish
Dollar/Rupee
68.75, 0.45%
Neutral
Neutral


Overall


S & P 500


Nifty

Bullish Indications
10
11
Bearish Indications
3
3
Outlook
Bullish
Bullish
Observation
The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish.
The markets are about to make secondary tops.
On the Horizon
U.S – PPI, CPI, Canada – BOC rate decision
*Nifty
India’s Benchmark Stock Market Index
Raw Data
Courtesy Google finance, Stock charts, investing.com
**Neutral
Changes less than 0.5% are considered neutral


stock market signals july 09


The S and P 500 and the Nifty rallied last week. Indicators are bullish for the upcoming week. This rally should lead to a major secondary top in key asset classes near 2830 on the S and P, 1.20 on the Euro and 11, 100 on the Nifty. Quantitative tightening by the FED is yet to be priced in fully. The markets are still trading well over 3 standard deviations above their long term averages from which corrections usually result. The critical levels to watch for the week are 2770 (up) and 2750 (down) on the S & P and 10900 (up) and 10700 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets. You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.


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